Updated

Scotland Premiership · Matchday 8

Aberdeen vs ST Johnstone

· Pittodrie Stadium, Aberdeen· Referee R. Lee

Full time0 – 1

TipsterGrid prediction was Aberdeen to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 0

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
AberdeenDrawST Johnstone

Aberdeen vs ST Johnstone: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceAberdeenDrawST Johnstone
Model32%31%37%
Market43%28%28%
Published41%29%30%
Edge-3%+1%+2%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Aberdeen vs ST Johnstone odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Aberdeen, 45 snapshots since 2026-09-19.

Opened 2.15Now 2.16 +0.01
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Aberdeen2.152.16+0.01
Draw3.303.29-0.01
ST Johnstone3.303.33+0.03

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Aberdeen and ST Johnstone expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.07Aberdeen
1.18ST Johnstone
Total expected goals
2.25
Attack rating (Aberdeen / ST Johnstone)
0.89 / 1.04
Defence rating (Aberdeen / ST Johnstone)
0.94 / 0.79

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Aberdeen vs ST Johnstone score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 11.9% 11.1% 7.3% 2.9% 1.1% 1 10.0% 14.6% 7.8% 3.1% 1.2% 2 6.1% 7.2% 4.2% 1.6% 0.6% 3 2.2% 2.6% 1.5% 0.6% 0.2% 4+ 0.7% 0.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1%

Rows: Aberdeen goals. Columns: ST Johnstone goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Aberdeen vs ST Johnstone goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 88%
Over 1.5 67%
Over 2.5 39%
Over 3.5 19%
Both teams to score
47%
No goals (0–0)
12%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Aberdeen vs ST Johnstone

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Aberdeen41%2.47
Draw29%3.43
ST Johnstone30%3.31
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.539%2.56
Under 2.561%1.64
Both teams to scoreYes47%2.13
No53%1.88
Double chance1X (Aberdeen or draw)70%1.43
12 (either side)71%1.41
X2 (draw or ST Johnstone)59%1.68
Handicap -1Aberdeen win by 2+13%7.70
Push (exactly one goal)19%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Aberdeen and ST Johnstone recent form

Aberdeen 1W 2D 3L
ST Johnstone 1W 2D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Aberdeen at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-1
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
0.67
Goals against / match
0.67
Clean sheets
1 of 3
  • They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They average 1.2 goals per game on the road against 0.7 at home.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 7 matches.

ST Johnstone away

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-2
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.67
Goals against / match
1.33
Clean sheets
0 of 3
  • They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.

League matches this season before kick-off: Aberdeen at home only, ST Johnstone away only.

Expected lineups

Aberdeen lineup · 5-3-2

  1. 27 M. Müller
  2. 24 N. Guinness-Walker
  3. 21 G. Molloy
  4. 5 M. Knoester
  5. 22 J. Milne
  6. 28 C. Cadden
  7. 25 C. Ronan
  8. 40 F. Marshall
  9. 8 B. Lyons
  10. 15 K. Nisbet
  11. 9 A. Mouloua

Bench: Tony Yogane, Lewis Smith, H. Mahou, S. Armstrong, T. Olusanya, L. Mayo, D. Happe, D. Klein, A. Aremu

ST Johnstone lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 T. Steward
  2. 2 E. Alıç
  3. 14 M. Foulds
  4. 19 D. Finlayson
  5. 33 L. Smith
  6. 8 J. Holt
  7. 42 R. McAlear
  8. 11 S. Stanton
  9. 99 R. Paton
  10. 26 M. Todd
  11. 9 J. Fowler

Bench: B. Mikulić, T. Steven, J. Gullan, K. Fotheringham, R. Sinclair, D. Schmidt, L. Chalmers, J. Cotterill, J. Campbell

Aberdeen vs ST Johnstone head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Aberdeen 5 · draws 4 · ST Johnstone 1.

AberdeenDrawsST Johnstone
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2025-03-15ST Johnstone0-0AberdeenPremiership
2024-12-07Aberdeen1-1ST JohnstonePremiership
2024-08-05ST Johnstone1-2AberdeenPremiership
2024-05-04Aberdeen1-0ST JohnstonePremiership
2024-02-28Aberdeen0-2ST JohnstonePremiership
2024-01-24ST Johnstone1-1AberdeenPremiership
2023-10-08Aberdeen0-0ST JohnstonePremiership
2023-04-01ST Johnstone0-1AberdeenPremiership
2023-01-07Aberdeen2-0ST JohnstonePremiership
2022-08-20ST Johnstone0-1AberdeenPremiership

Other Matchday 8 fixtures

Before and after this match