Updated

Scotland Premiership · Matchday 8

Dundee Utd vs Hibernian

· CalForth Construction Arena, Dundee· Referee D. Robertson

Full time1 – 0

TipsterGrid prediction was Dundee Utd to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 0

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Dundee UtdDrawHibernian

Dundee Utd vs Hibernian: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceDundee UtdDrawHibernian
Model46%28%26%
Market35%27%39%
Published38%27%35%
Edge+3%0%-3%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.52 vs 1.08.
  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Dundee Utd below our published probability: +2.8 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Dundee Utd vs Hibernian odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Dundee Utd, 43 snapshots since 2026-09-19.

Opened 2.79Now 2.69 -0.10
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Dundee Utd2.792.69-0.10
Draw3.483.54+0.06
Hibernian2.322.44+0.12

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Dundee Utd and Hibernian expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.52Dundee Utd
1.08Hibernian
Total expected goals
2.59
Attack rating (Dundee Utd / Hibernian)
0.99 / 0.86
Defence rating (Dundee Utd / Hibernian)
1.04 / 1.02

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Dundee Utd vs Hibernian score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 8.7% 6.8% 4.3% 1.6% 0.5% 1 10.1% 13.4% 6.6% 2.4% 0.8% 2 8.6% 9.3% 5.0% 1.8% 0.6% 3 4.3% 4.7% 2.5% 0.9% 0.3% 4+ 2.3% 2.5% 1.3% 0.5% 0.2%

Rows: Dundee Utd goals. Columns: Hibernian goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Dundee Utd vs Hibernian goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 91%
Over 1.5 74%
Over 2.5 48%
Over 3.5 26%
Both teams to score
53%
No goals (0–0)
9%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Dundee Utd vs Hibernian

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Dundee Utd38%2.65
Draw27%3.72
Hibernian35%2.83
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.548%2.09
Under 2.552%1.92
Both teams to scoreYes53%1.90
No47%2.11
Double chance1X (Dundee Utd or draw)65%1.55
12 (either side)73%1.37
X2 (draw or Hibernian)62%1.61
Handicap -1Dundee Utd win by 2+24%4.18
Push (exactly one goal)22%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Dundee Utd and Hibernian recent form

Dundee Utd 2W 1D 3L
Hibernian 1W 1D 4L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Dundee Utd at home

Record (W-D-L)
0-2-1
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.67
Goals against / match
1.33
Clean sheets
0 of 3
  • They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 0.7 at home.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.

Hibernian away

Record (W-D-L)
2-0-1
Win rate
67%
Goals for / match
1.67
Goals against / match
1.33
Clean sheets
0 of 3
  • They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They average 1.7 goals per game on the road against 0.8 at home.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).

League matches this season before kick-off: Dundee Utd at home only, Hibernian away only.

Expected lineups

Dundee Utd lineup · 4-3-3

  1. 1 J. Walton
  2. 19 K. Ciubotaru
  3. 18 M. Forbes
  4. 3 B. Esselink
  5. 23 J. Rawlins
  6. 14 Zidane Iqbal
  7. 10 D. Tait
  8. 16 L. Cameron
  9. 77 D. Bennie
  10. 93 I. Metsoko
  11. 21 J. Randall

Bench: I. Iovu, R. Graham, Panutche Camará, Z. Sapsford, L. Rose, N. Farrugia, D. Naamo, Abdoulaye Yoro, J. Amissah

Hibernian lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 R. Sallinger
  2. 15 J. Iredale
  3. 6 J. Kerr
  4. 5 M. Ivezić
  5. 25 F. Passlack
  6. 8 J. Mulligan
  7. 14 M. Chaiwa
  8. 22 A. Šuto
  9. 18 T. Klidje
  10. 7 O. Elding
  11. 23 C. Wright

Bench: G. Hanley, N. Lowe, M. Boyle, J. Newell, N. Cadden, J. Devaney, F. Owens, R. Matondo, A. Abdulai

Dundee Utd vs Hibernian head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Dundee Utd 3 · draws 4 · Hibernian 3.

Dundee UtdDrawsHibernian
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-02-04Hibernian3-2Dundee UtdScotland Premiership
2025-12-20Dundee Utd1-1HibernianScotland Premiership
2025-09-13Hibernian3-3Dundee UtdScotland Premiership
2025-05-03Hibernian3-1Dundee UtdPremiership
2025-02-26Dundee Utd1-3HibernianPremiership
2024-11-03Hibernian1-1Dundee UtdPremiership
2024-10-19Dundee Utd3-2HibernianPremiership
2023-04-09Dundee Utd2-1HibernianPremiership
2023-01-14Hibernian2-2Dundee UtdPremiership
2022-10-11Dundee Utd1-0HibernianPremiership

Other Matchday 8 fixtures

Before and after this match