Motherwell vs Celtic: model vs market
| Source | Motherwell | Draw | Celtic |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 28% | 25% | 47% |
| Market | 19% | 21% | 60% |
| Published | 22% | 22% | 57% |
| Edge | +2% | +1% | -3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.85 vs 1.39.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Motherwell vs Celtic odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Celtic, 45 snapshots since 2026-09-19.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Motherwell | 6.00 | 4.87 | -1.13 |
| Draw | 4.50 | 4.50 | +0.00 |
| Celtic | 1.44 | 1.58 | +0.14 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Motherwell and Celtic expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.24
- Attack rating (Motherwell / Celtic)
- 0.98 / 1.28
- Defence rating (Motherwell / Celtic)
- 1.20 / 0.93
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Motherwell vs Celtic score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Motherwell goals. Columns: Celtic goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Motherwell vs Celtic goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 64%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Motherwell vs Celtic
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Motherwell | 22% | 4.64 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.57 | |
| Celtic | 57% | 1.77 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63% | 1.59 |
| Under 2.5 | 37% | 2.69 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64% | 1.55 |
| No | 36% | 2.80 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Motherwell or draw) | 43% | 2.30 |
| 12 (either side) | 78% | 1.28 | |
| X2 (draw or Celtic) | 78% | 1.28 | |
| Handicap -1 | Celtic win by 2+ | 27% | 3.75 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Motherwell and Celtic recent form
Motherwell
1W 1D 4L
Celtic
4W 0D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Motherwell at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
Celtic away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 2.67
- Goals against / match
- 0.67
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 6 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.7 goals per game on the road against 1.5 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Motherwell at home only, Celtic away only.
Expected lineups
Motherwell lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 1 A. Paulsen
- 45 M. Emmanuel
- 5 M. Moormann
- 2 S. O'Donnell
- 7 T. Sparrow
- 8 L. Fadinger
- 71 J. Hodge
- 11 A. Lowry
- 63 D. Levitt
- 77 W. Vogt
- 47 S. Palmer-Houlden
Bench: J. Girdwood-Reich, Jamie Knight-Lebel, J. McGhee, J. Kanga, E. Björgólfsson, Tawanda Jethro Maswanhise, I. Said, M. Connelly, M. Booth
Celtic lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 1 V. Sinisalo
- 63 K. Tierney
- 5 L. Scales
- 47 D. Murray
- 51 Colby Donovan
- 22 M. Baur
- 42 C. McGregor
- 17 S. Tounekti
- 8 B. Nygren
- 11 C. Durán
- 9 K. Høgh
Bench: J. Lotomba, A. Trusty, Jota, O. Sørensen, A. Oxlade-Chamberlain, H. Hassan, S. Johnstone, Shumaira Mheuka, J. Forrest
Motherwell vs Celtic head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Motherwell 1 · draws 1 · Celtic 8.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-13 | Motherwell | 2-3 | Celtic | Scotland Premiership |
| 2026-03-14 | Celtic | 3-1 | Motherwell | Scotland Premiership |
| 2025-12-30 | Motherwell | 2-0 | Celtic | Scotland Premiership |
| 2025-10-05 | Celtic | 3-2 | Motherwell | Scotland Premiership |
| 2025-02-02 | Motherwell | 1-3 | Celtic | Premiership |
| 2024-12-26 | Celtic | 4-0 | Motherwell | Premiership |
| 2024-10-27 | Motherwell | 0-3 | Celtic | Premiership |
| 2024-02-25 | Motherwell | 1-3 | Celtic | Premiership |
| 2023-11-25 | Celtic | 1-1 | Motherwell | Premiership |
| 2023-09-30 | Motherwell | 1-2 | Celtic | Premiership |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- Heart Of Midlothian vs ST Mirren — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- Rangers v Kilmarnock — match page 2026-10-10
- Dundee Utd vs Hibernian — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- Falkirk vs Dundee 2026-10-10
- Aberdeen v ST Johnstone — match page 2026-10-11
Before and after this match
- Motherwell, next: Kilmarnock vs Motherwell prediction
- Celtic, next: Benfica v Celtic analysis