Updated

Scotland Premiership · Matchday 8

Heart Of Midlothian vs ST Mirren

· Tynecastle Park, Edinburgh· Referee N. Walsh

Full time5 – 0

TipsterGrid prediction was Heart Of Midlothian to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Heart Of MidlothianDrawST Mirren

Heart Of Midlothian vs ST Mirren: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceHeart Of MidlothianDrawST Mirren
Model53%26%21%
Market65%20%15%
Published62%21%17%
Edge-3%+1%+1%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.77 vs 1.06.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Heart Of Midlothian vs ST Mirren odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Heart Of Midlothian, 43 snapshots since 2026-09-19.

Opened 1.54Now 1.44 -0.10
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Heart Of Midlothian1.541.44-0.10
Draw4.154.76+0.61
ST Mirren5.506.05+0.55

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Heart Of Midlothian and ST Mirren expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.77Heart Of Midlothian
1.06ST Mirren
Total expected goals
2.83
Attack rating (Heart Of Midlothian / ST Mirren)
1.12 / 0.78
Defence rating (Heart Of Midlothian / ST Mirren)
1.13 / 1.04

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Heart Of Midlothian vs ST Mirren score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 7.0% 5.1% 3.3% 1.2% 0.4% 1 9.3% 12.2% 5.9% 2.1% 0.7% 2 9.3% 9.8% 5.2% 1.8% 0.6% 3 5.5% 5.8% 3.1% 1.1% 0.4% 4+ 3.6% 3.8% 2.0% 0.7% 0.2%

Rows: Heart Of Midlothian goals. Columns: ST Mirren goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Heart Of Midlothian vs ST Mirren goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%
Over 1.5 79%
Over 2.5 54%
Over 3.5 32%
Both teams to score
55%
No goals (0–0)
7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Heart Of Midlothian vs ST Mirren

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Heart Of Midlothian62%1.62
Draw21%4.73
ST Mirren17%5.89
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.554%1.86
Under 2.546%2.17
Both teams to scoreYes55%1.81
No45%2.24
Double chance1X (Heart Of Midlothian or draw)83%1.20
12 (either side)79%1.27
X2 (draw or ST Mirren)38%2.62
Handicap -1Heart Of Midlothian win by 2+30%3.31
Push (exactly one goal)23%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Heart Of Midlothian and ST Mirren recent form

Heart Of Midlothian 3W 2D 1L
ST Mirren 2W 1D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Heart Of Midlothian at home

Record (W-D-L)
3-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
2.67
Goals against / match
0.67
Clean sheets
1 of 3
  • They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
  • They average 2.7 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

ST Mirren away

Record (W-D-L)
2-0-1
Win rate
67%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
0.33
Clean sheets
2 of 3
  • They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
  • 59% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Heart Of Midlothian at home only, ST Mirren away only.

Expected lineups

Heart Of Midlothian lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 B. Reus
  2. 18 H. Milne
  3. 5 J. McCart
  4. 64 M. Fagan-Walcott
  5. 23 J. Altena
  6. 78 L. Mendy
  7. 8 Ageu
  8. 15 J. McPake
  9. 10 Cláudio Braga
  10. 7 C. Miller
  11. 21 J. Wilson

Bench: C. Borchgrevink, O. McEntee, J. Williams, S. Findlay, S. Guendouz, T. Magnússon, S. Kerjota, R. Fulton, R. Mato

ST Mirren lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 J. Chapman
  2. 3 D. John
  3. 53 Henry Fieldson
  4. 13 A. Gogić
  5. 47 C. Ramsay
  6. 48 P. Nsio
  7. 8 R. Carr
  8. 19 Ismeal Kabia
  9. 30 F. Taylor
  10. 23 C. Mochrie
  11. 25 N. Agrafiotis

Bench: L. Donnelly, Louis Jackson, Eseosa Sule, Samu, L. Thomas, M. Fraser, C. McEvoy, K. Phillips

Heart Of Midlothian vs ST Mirren head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Heart Of Midlothian 4 · draws 4 · ST Mirren 2.

Heart Of MidlothianDrawsST Mirren
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-02-03ST Mirren1-0Heart Of MidlothianScotland Premiership
2026-01-14Heart Of Midlothian2-0ST MirrenScotland Premiership
2025-10-29ST Mirren2-2Heart Of MidlothianScotland Premiership
2025-08-16ST Mirren1-1Heart Of MidlothianLeague Cup
2025-02-26Heart Of Midlothian3-1ST MirrenPremiership
2025-02-10ST Mirren1-1Heart Of MidlothianScotland FA Cup
2024-10-19Heart Of Midlothian4-0ST MirrenPremiership
2024-09-21ST Mirren2-1Heart Of MidlothianPremiership
2024-05-15ST Mirren2-2Heart Of MidlothianPremiership
2024-04-06ST Mirren1-2Heart Of MidlothianPremiership

Other Matchday 8 fixtures

Before and after this match