Rangers vs Kilmarnock: model vs market
| Source | Rangers | Draw | Kilmarnock |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 52% | 29% | 19% |
| Market | 83% | 11% | 6% |
| Published | 75% | 16% | 9% |
| Edge | -8% | +4% | +3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.47 vs 0.80.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Rangers vs Kilmarnock odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Rangers, 43 snapshots since 2026-09-19.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rangers | 1.19 | 1.13 | -0.06 |
| Draw | 6.50 | 8.20 | +1.70 |
| Kilmarnock | 12.80 | 16.00 | +3.20 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Rangers and Kilmarnock expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.28
- Attack rating (Rangers / Kilmarnock)
- 0.90 / 0.98
- Defence rating (Rangers / Kilmarnock)
- 0.68 / 1.08
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Rangers vs Kilmarnock score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Rangers goals. Columns: Kilmarnock goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Rangers vs Kilmarnock goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 44%
- No goals (0–0)
- 11%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Rangers vs Kilmarnock
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Rangers | 75% | 1.33 |
| Draw | 16% | 6.32 | |
| Kilmarnock | 9% | 10.86 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 40% | 2.51 |
| Under 2.5 | 60% | 1.66 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 44% | 2.28 |
| No | 56% | 1.78 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Rangers or draw) | 91% | 1.10 |
| 12 (either side) | 84% | 1.19 | |
| X2 (draw or Kilmarnock) | 25% | 4.00 | |
| Handicap -1 | Rangers win by 2+ | 27% | 3.70 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Rangers and Kilmarnock recent form
Rangers
5W 0D 1L
Kilmarnock
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Rangers at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-1
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.67
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 3
- They have won 5 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Kilmarnock away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 3
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game on the road against 0.5 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Rangers at home only, Kilmarnock away only.
Expected lineups
Rangers lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 1 I. Pandur
- 29 J. Penrice
- 24 O. Makhanya
- 37 E. Fernandez
- 21 D. Sterling
- 43 N. Raskin
- 6 D. Neil
- 23 D. Gassama
- 20 R. Naderi
- 10 Minsu Kim
- 19 K. Kelsy
Bench: B. Godfrey, K. Nedeljković, V. Dragojević, T. Rommens, B. Bouanani, B. Miovski, L. Kelly, T. Chukwuani, Findlay Curtis
Kilmarnock lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 12 C. Ferrie
- 21 M. Schjønning-Larsen
- 14 G. Stanger
- 4 C. McCarthy
- 3 Michael-John Kamson-Kamara
- 18 T. Lowery
- 36 A. Tshibola
- 11 G. Kiltie
- 10 T. John-Jules
- 8 E. Ring
- 9 J. Hugill
Bench: J. Brandon, M. O'Hara, R. Deas, R. McKenzie, J. Meier, N. Cleșcenco, I. Owen, D. Daniels, C. Armour
Rangers vs Kilmarnock head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Rangers 8 · draws 0 · Kilmarnock 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-04 | Rangers | 5-1 | Kilmarnock | Scotland Premiership |
| 2025-12-06 | Kilmarnock | 0-3 | Rangers | Scotland Premiership |
| 2025-10-26 | Rangers | 3-1 | Kilmarnock | Scotland Premiership |
| 2025-02-26 | Kilmarnock | 2-4 | Rangers | Premiership |
| 2024-12-04 | Rangers | 6-0 | Kilmarnock | Premiership |
| 2024-10-20 | Kilmarnock | 1-0 | Rangers | Premiership |
| 2024-05-05 | Rangers | 4-1 | Kilmarnock | Premiership |
| 2024-02-28 | Kilmarnock | 1-2 | Rangers | Premiership |
| 2024-01-02 | Rangers | 3-1 | Kilmarnock | Premiership |
| 2023-08-05 | Kilmarnock | 1-0 | Rangers | Premiership |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- Heart Of Midlothian vs ST Mirren — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- Dundee Utd vs Hibernian — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- Falkirk vs Dundee 2026-10-10
- Motherwell vs Celtic 2026-10-11
- Aberdeen v ST Johnstone — match page 2026-10-11
Before and after this match
- Rangers, next: Dundee v Rangers analysis
- Kilmarnock, next: Kilmarnock vs Motherwell prediction