Aberdeen vs ST Mirren: model vs market
| Source | Aberdeen | Draw | ST Mirren |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 54% | 28% | 17% |
| Market | 51% | 25% | 23% |
| Published | 52% | 26% | 22% |
| Edge | +1% | +1% | -2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.51 vs 0.74.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Aberdeen vs ST Mirren odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Aberdeen, 55 snapshots since 2026-09-20.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aberdeen | 1.83 | 1.83 | +0.01 |
| Draw | 3.68 | 3.69 | +0.00 |
| ST Mirren | 4.02 | 4.00 | -0.02 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Aberdeen and ST Mirren expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.25
- Attack rating (Aberdeen / ST Mirren)
- 0.81 / 0.70
- Defence rating (Aberdeen / ST Mirren)
- 0.89 / 1.23
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Aberdeen vs ST Mirren score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Aberdeen goals. Columns: ST Mirren goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Aberdeen vs ST Mirren goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 42%
- No goals (0–0)
- 12%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Aberdeen vs ST Mirren
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Aberdeen | 52% | 1.93 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.82 | |
| ST Mirren | 22% | 4.57 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 39% | 2.56 |
| Under 2.5 | 61% | 1.64 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 42% | 2.38 |
| No | 58% | 1.72 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Aberdeen or draw) | 78% | 1.28 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or ST Mirren) | 48% | 2.08 | |
| Handicap -1 | Aberdeen win by 2+ | 29% | 3.45 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Aberdeen and ST Mirren recent form
Aberdeen
1W 2D 3L
ST Mirren
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Aberdeen at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-2
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 0.50
- Goals against / match
- 0.75
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game on the road against 0.5 at home.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 8 matches.
ST Mirren away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 0.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
- 55% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Aberdeen at home only, ST Mirren away only.
Expected lineups
Aberdeen lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 27 M. Müller
- 24 N. Guinness-Walker
- 5 M. Knoester
- 23 L. Mayo
- 28 C. Cadden
- 32 A. Aremu
- 25 C. Ronan
- 8 B. Lyons
- 20 T. Olusanya
- 11 Lewis Smith
- 15 K. Nisbet
Bench: Tony Yogane, A. Mouloua, S. Armstrong, G. Molloy, J. Milne, D. Happe, D. Klein, F. Marshall, E. Gyamfi
ST Mirren lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 1 J. Chapman
- 3 D. John
- 13 A. Gogić
- 22 M. Fraser
- 47 C. Ramsay
- 48 P. Nsio
- 8 R. Carr
- 19 Ismeal Kabia
- 88 K. Phillips
- 16 L. Thomas
- 9 Eseosa Sule
Bench: L. Donnelly, Louis Jackson, Samu, J. Young, C. Mochrie, F. Taylor, C. McEvoy, Henry Fieldson
Aberdeen vs ST Mirren head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Aberdeen 2 · draws 1 · ST Mirren 7.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-12 | Aberdeen | 0-2 | ST Mirren | Scotland Premiership |
| 2026-04-04 | ST Mirren | 2-0 | Aberdeen | Scotland Premiership |
| 2025-12-03 | Aberdeen | 3-3 | ST Mirren | Scotland Premiership |
| 2025-10-18 | ST Mirren | 0-1 | Aberdeen | Scotland Premiership |
| 2025-05-03 | ST Mirren | 1-0 | Aberdeen | Premiership |
| 2025-01-25 | Aberdeen | 0-3 | ST Mirren | Premiership |
| 2024-11-23 | ST Mirren | 2-1 | Aberdeen | Premiership |
| 2024-08-11 | Aberdeen | 3-1 | ST Mirren | Premiership |
| 2024-03-02 | ST Mirren | 2-1 | Aberdeen | Premiership |
| 2023-12-30 | Aberdeen | 0-3 | ST Mirren | Premiership |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Hibernian vs Falkirk — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Kilmarnock vs Motherwell 2026-10-17
- ST Johnstone vs Dundee Utd 2026-10-17
- Dundee vs Rangers — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Celtic v Heart Of Midlothian — match page 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- Aberdeen, previous: Aberdeen vs ST Johnstone prediction
- Aberdeen, next: Dundee Utd vs Aberdeen prediction
- ST Mirren, previous: Heart Of Midlothian – ST Mirren, 2026-10-10
- ST Mirren, next: ST Mirren – Dundee, 2026-10-24