Falkirk vs Dundee: model vs market
| Source | Falkirk | Draw | Dundee |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 29% | 28% | 44% |
| Market | 47% | 26% | 27% |
| Published | 42% | 27% | 31% |
| Edge | -5% | 0% | +4% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Falkirk vs Dundee odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Falkirk, 43 snapshots since 2026-09-19.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Falkirk | 1.96 | 2.00 | +0.04 |
| Draw | 3.54 | 3.54 | +0.00 |
| Dundee | 3.50 | 3.50 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Falkirk and Dundee expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.74
- Attack rating (Falkirk / Dundee)
- 0.84 / 1.02
- Defence rating (Falkirk / Dundee)
- 1.24 / 0.95
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Falkirk vs Dundee score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Falkirk goals. Columns: Dundee goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Falkirk vs Dundee goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 56%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Falkirk vs Dundee
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Falkirk | 42% | 2.36 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.74 | |
| Dundee | 31% | 3.23 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52% | 1.94 |
| Under 2.5 | 48% | 2.07 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56% | 1.78 |
| No | 44% | 2.28 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Falkirk or draw) | 69% | 1.45 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Dundee) | 58% | 1.73 | |
| Handicap -1 | Falkirk win by 2+ | 12% | 8.09 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Falkirk and Dundee recent form
Falkirk
1W 3D 2L
Dundee
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Falkirk at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
Dundee away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Falkirk at home only, Dundee away only.
Expected lineups
Falkirk lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 19 S. Bain
- 3 L. McCann
- 5 L. Henderson
- 15 L. Neilson
- 22 R. Strain
- 16 Finley Frank Barbrook
- 8 B. Spencer
- 42 Owen Eames
- 28 B. Krauhaus
- 23 E. Ross
- 24 J. Murrell
Bench: N. Hogarth, J. McMillan, Ben Parkinson, R. MacIver, C. Sibbald, F. Yeats, D. Meļņiks, C. McLeod, C. Fodrey
Dundee lineup · 4-4-2
- 1 O. Goodman
- 12 I. Samuels
- 5 O. Bevan
- 4 R. Astley
- 7 D. Wright
- 27 J. Bevan
- 48 E. Hamilton
- 28 C. Jones
- 14 A. Forrest
- 11 A. Hay
- 21 B. Fink
Bench: B. Halliday, I. Odutayo, M. Akinmboni, K. O'Hara, J. Wright, R. Bland, Alfie Harrison
Falkirk vs Dundee head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Falkirk 5 · draws 1 · Dundee 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-11 | Falkirk | 1-0 | Dundee | Scotland Premiership |
| 2025-12-27 | Dundee | 1-0 | Falkirk | Scotland Premiership |
| 2025-10-25 | Falkirk | 2-1 | Dundee | Scotland Premiership |
| 2022-12-08 | Falkirk | 0-3 | Dundee | Challenge Cup |
| 2022-08-30 | Dundee | 3-0 | Falkirk | League Cup |
| 2014-03-29 | Dundee | 0-1 | Falkirk | Championship |
| 2014-01-25 | Falkirk | 2-0 | Dundee | Championship |
| 2013-11-16 | Dundee | 1-1 | Falkirk | Championship |
| 2013-09-21 | Falkirk | 3-1 | Dundee | Championship |
| 2012-04-07 | Dundee | 3-1 | Falkirk | Championship |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- Heart Of Midlothian vs ST Mirren — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- Rangers v Kilmarnock — match page 2026-10-10
- Dundee Utd vs Hibernian — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- Motherwell vs Celtic 2026-10-11
- Aberdeen v ST Johnstone — match page 2026-10-11
Before and after this match
- Falkirk, next: Hibernian vs Falkirk: odds and pick
- Dundee, next: Dundee v Rangers analysis