Updated

Scotland Premiership · Matchday 9

ST Johnstone vs Dundee Utd

· McDiarmid Park, Perth· Referee R. Hardie

Full time1 – 1

TipsterGrid prediction was ST Johnstone to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 0

13% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
ST JohnstoneDrawDundee Utd

ST Johnstone vs Dundee Utd: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceST JohnstoneDrawDundee Utd
Model51%29%20%
Market36%27%37%
Published40%27%33%
Edge+4%0%-4%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.49 vs 0.85.
  • The market prices ST Johnstone below our published probability: +3.9 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

ST Johnstone vs Dundee Utd odds movement

Median bookmaker price on ST Johnstone, 55 snapshots since 2026-09-20.

Opened 2.30Now 2.62 +0.32
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
ST Johnstone2.302.62+0.32
Draw3.483.46-0.02
Dundee Utd2.862.50-0.36

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

ST Johnstone and Dundee Utd expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.49ST Johnstone
0.85Dundee Utd
Total expected goals
2.34
Attack rating (ST Johnstone / Dundee Utd)
1.02 / 0.95
Defence rating (ST Johnstone / Dundee Utd)
0.74 / 0.96

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

ST Johnstone vs Dundee Utd score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 10.9% 6.9% 3.5% 1.0% 0.2% 1 13.2% 13.4% 5.2% 1.5% 0.4% 2 10.7% 9.1% 3.8% 1.1% 0.3% 3 5.3% 4.5% 1.9% 0.5% 0.1% 4+ 2.8% 2.3% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1%

Rows: ST Johnstone goals. Columns: Dundee Utd goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

ST Johnstone vs Dundee Utd goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 89%
Over 1.5 69%
Over 2.5 41%
Over 3.5 21%
Both teams to score
45%
No goals (0–0)
11%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for ST Johnstone vs Dundee Utd

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2ST Johnstone40%2.53
Draw27%3.65
Dundee Utd33%3.03
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.541%2.41
Under 2.559%1.71
Both teams to scoreYes45%2.20
No55%1.83
Double chance1X (ST Johnstone or draw)67%1.49
12 (either side)73%1.38
X2 (draw or Dundee Utd)60%1.65
Handicap -1ST Johnstone win by 2+27%3.73
Push (exactly one goal)24%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

ST Johnstone and Dundee Utd recent form

ST Johnstone 2W 2D 2L
Dundee Utd 3W 1D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

ST Johnstone at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-1-1
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
1.75
Goals against / match
1.50
Clean sheets
0 of 4
  • They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
  • They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).

Dundee Utd away

Record (W-D-L)
2-0-2
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
1.75
Goals against / match
1.75
Clean sheets
2 of 4
  • They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 0.8 at home.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: ST Johnstone at home only, Dundee Utd away only.

Expected lineups

ST Johnstone lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 T. Steward
  2. 2 E. Alıç
  3. 3 C. Diabate
  4. 19 D. Finlayson
  5. 33 L. Smith
  6. 8 J. Holt
  7. 42 R. McAlear
  8. 7 T. Steven
  9. 30 J. Cotterill
  10. 11 S. Stanton
  11. 9 J. Fowler

Bench: B. Mikulić, J. Gullan, M. Foulds, K. Fotheringham, R. Sinclair, L. Chalmers, M. Todd, J. Campbell, R. Paton

Dundee Utd lineup · 4-3-3

  1. 1 J. Walton
  2. 19 K. Ciubotaru
  3. 18 M. Forbes
  4. 3 B. Esselink
  5. 23 J. Rawlins
  6. 14 Zidane Iqbal
  7. 16 L. Cameron
  8. 10 D. Tait
  9. 77 D. Bennie
  10. 93 I. Metsoko
  11. 21 J. Randall

Bench: I. Iovu, R. Graham, Panutche Camará, Z. Sapsford, L. Rose, N. Farrugia, D. Naamo, Abdoulaye Yoro, J. Amissah

ST Johnstone vs Dundee Utd head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: ST Johnstone 4 · draws 1 · Dundee Utd 5.

ST JohnstoneDrawsDundee Utd
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2025-04-12Dundee Utd1-0ST JohnstonePremiership
2024-12-26ST Johnstone1-2Dundee UtdPremiership
2024-08-24Dundee Utd2-0ST JohnstonePremiership
2023-05-06ST Johnstone1-0Dundee UtdPremiership
2023-02-18Dundee Utd1-2ST JohnstonePremiership
2023-01-02ST Johnstone0-1Dundee UtdPremiership
2022-10-01Dundee Utd1-2ST JohnstonePremiership
2022-02-05ST Johnstone0-0Dundee UtdPremiership
2021-10-30Dundee Utd0-1ST JohnstonePremiership
2021-08-22ST Johnstone0-1Dundee UtdPremiership

Other Matchday 9 fixtures

Before and after this match