Updated

Scotland Premiership · Matchday 12

Kilmarnock vs ST Johnstone

· The BBSP Stadium Rugby Park, Kilmarnock

Full time2 – 2

TipsterGrid prediction was Kilmarnock to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 1

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
KilmarnockDrawST Johnstone

Kilmarnock vs ST Johnstone: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceKilmarnockDrawST Johnstone
Model36%26%37%
Market41%27%33%
Published40%27%34%
Edge-1%0%+1%
  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Kilmarnock vs ST Johnstone odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Kilmarnock, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-25.

Opened 2.75Now 2.30 -0.45
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Kilmarnock2.752.30-0.45
Draw3.503.54+0.04
ST Johnstone2.302.88+0.58

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Kilmarnock and ST Johnstone expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.49Kilmarnock
1.52ST Johnstone
Total expected goals
3.01
Attack rating (Kilmarnock / ST Johnstone)
0.96 / 0.92
Defence rating (Kilmarnock / ST Johnstone)
1.36 / 1.00

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Kilmarnock vs ST Johnstone score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.0% 6.4% 5.7% 2.9% 1.5% 1 6.2% 12.3% 8.5% 4.3% 2.3% 2 5.5% 8.3% 6.3% 3.2% 1.7% 3 2.7% 4.1% 3.1% 1.6% 0.8% 4+ 1.4% 2.1% 1.6% 0.8% 0.4%

Rows: Kilmarnock goals. Columns: ST Johnstone goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Kilmarnock vs ST Johnstone goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%
Over 1.5 81%
Over 2.5 58%
Over 3.5 36%
Both teams to score
62%
No goals (0–0)
6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Kilmarnock vs ST Johnstone

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Kilmarnock40%2.52
Draw27%3.77
ST Johnstone34%2.96
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.558%1.73
Under 2.542%2.38
Both teams to scoreYes62%1.62
No38%2.61
Double chance1X (Kilmarnock or draw)66%1.51
12 (either side)73%1.36
X2 (draw or ST Johnstone)60%1.66
Handicap -1Kilmarnock win by 2+18%5.62
Push (exactly one goal)18%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Kilmarnock and ST Johnstone recent form

Kilmarnock 2W 1D 3L
ST Johnstone 1W 3D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Kilmarnock at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-3
Win rate
20%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
2.60
Clean sheets
0 of 5
  • They have won 2 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 11 matches.
  • 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

ST Johnstone away

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-3
Win rate
20%
Goals for / match
0.60
Goals against / match
1.60
Clean sheets
1 of 5
  • They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
  • They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
  • 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Kilmarnock at home only, ST Johnstone away only.

Expected lineups

Kilmarnock lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 58 N. Mantl
  2. 14 G. Stanger
  3. 6 R. Deas
  4. 4 C. McCarthy
  5. 2 J. Brandon
  6. 18 T. Lowery
  7. 36 A. Tshibola
  8. 11 G. Kiltie
  9. 29 D. Daniels
  10. 8 E. Ring
  11. 9 J. Hugill

Bench: Michael-John Kamson-Kamara, R. McKenzie, T. John-Jules, C. Ferrie, J. Meier, N. Cleșcenco, M. Schjønning-Larsen, Roshaun Mathurin, I. Owen

ST Johnstone lineup · 3-4-2-1

  1. 1 T. Steward
  2. 6 B. Mikulić
  3. 2 E. Alıç
  4. 3 C. Diabate
  5. 8 J. Holt
  6. 30 J. Cotterill
  7. 42 R. McAlear
  8. 26 M. Todd
  9. 7 T. Steven
  10. 22 D. Schmidt
  11. 9 J. Fowler

Bench: J. Gullan, M. Foulds, D. Finlayson, R. Sinclair, L. Chalmers, M. Tait, J. Campbell, A. Brookfield, R. Paton

Kilmarnock vs ST Johnstone head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Kilmarnock 4 · draws 1 · ST Johnstone 5.

KilmarnockDrawsST Johnstone
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-08-02ST Johnstone4-3KilmarnockScotland Premiership
2025-05-03ST Johnstone0-2KilmarnockPremiership
2025-02-15Kilmarnock3-1ST JohnstonePremiership
2024-11-23ST Johnstone1-0KilmarnockPremiership
2024-08-11Kilmarnock0-3ST JohnstonePremiership
2024-04-13ST Johnstone0-2KilmarnockPremiership
2023-12-23Kilmarnock2-1ST JohnstonePremiership
2023-11-01ST Johnstone2-1KilmarnockPremiership
2023-05-20Kilmarnock0-1ST JohnstonePremiership
2023-03-18Kilmarnock1-1ST JohnstonePremiership

Other Matchday 12 fixtures

Before and after this match