Updated

Scotland Premiership · Matchday 9

Hibernian vs Falkirk

· Easter Road, Edinburgh· Referee N. Walsh

Full time1 – 2

TipsterGrid prediction was Hibernian to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 0

12% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
HibernianDrawFalkirk

Hibernian vs Falkirk: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceHibernianDrawFalkirk
Model48%29%24%
Market56%24%20%
Published54%25%21%
Edge-2%+1%+1%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.46 vs 0.96.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Hibernian vs Falkirk odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Hibernian, 55 snapshots since 2026-09-20.

Opened 1.70Now 1.67 -0.03
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Hibernian1.701.67-0.03
Draw3.833.88+0.05
Falkirk4.424.72+0.30

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Hibernian and Falkirk expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.46Hibernian
0.96Falkirk
Total expected goals
2.42
Attack rating (Hibernian / Falkirk)
0.77 / 0.81
Defence rating (Hibernian / Falkirk)
0.99 / 1.26

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Hibernian vs Falkirk score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 10.1% 7.3% 4.1% 1.3% 0.4% 1 11.7% 13.7% 6.0% 1.9% 0.6% 2 9.5% 9.1% 4.4% 1.4% 0.4% 3 4.6% 4.4% 2.1% 0.7% 0.2% 4+ 2.3% 2.2% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1%

Rows: Hibernian goals. Columns: Falkirk goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Hibernian vs Falkirk goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 90%
Over 1.5 71%
Over 2.5 44%
Over 3.5 23%
Both teams to score
49%
No goals (0–0)
10%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Hibernian vs Falkirk

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Hibernian54%1.85
Draw25%3.95
Falkirk21%4.82
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.544%2.29
Under 2.556%1.77
Both teams to scoreYes49%2.05
No51%1.95
Double chance1X (Hibernian or draw)79%1.26
12 (either side)75%1.34
X2 (draw or Falkirk)46%2.17
Handicap -1Hibernian win by 2+24%4.11
Push (exactly one goal)23%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Hibernian and Falkirk recent form

Hibernian 1W 1D 4L
Falkirk 1W 2D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Hibernian at home

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-3
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.75
Goals against / match
1.75
Clean sheets
0 of 4
  • They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They average 1.2 goals per game on the road against 0.8 at home.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
  • 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Falkirk away

Record (W-D-L)
0-3-1
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.75
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
1 of 4
  • They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.

League matches this season before kick-off: Hibernian at home only, Falkirk away only.

Expected lineups

Hibernian lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 R. Sallinger
  2. 3 A. Mayor
  3. 5 M. Ivezić
  4. 6 J. Kerr
  5. 25 F. Passlack
  6. 14 M. Chaiwa
  7. 8 J. Mulligan
  8. 18 T. Klidje
  9. 47 A. Abdulai
  10. 10 M. Boyle
  11. 7 O. Elding

Bench: G. Hanley, J. Newell, Alex Williams, J. Iredale, J. McGrath, N. Cadden, A. Šuto, F. Owens, R. Matondo

Falkirk lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 19 S. Bain
  2. 17 S. Tanser
  3. 5 L. Henderson
  4. 15 L. Neilson
  5. 22 R. Strain
  6. 16 Finley Frank Barbrook
  7. 8 B. Spencer
  8. 42 Owen Eames
  9. 28 B. Krauhaus
  10. 23 E. Ross
  11. 24 J. Murrell

Bench: N. Hogarth, L. McCann, J. McMillan, Ben Parkinson, R. MacIver, F. Yeats, D. Meļņiks, C. McLeod, C. Fodrey

Hibernian vs Falkirk head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Hibernian 5 · draws 3 · Falkirk 2.

HibernianDrawsFalkirk
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-09Falkirk1-3HibernianScotland Premiership
2026-01-24Falkirk4-1HibernianScotland Premiership
2025-12-06Hibernian3-0FalkirkScotland Premiership
2025-09-23Falkirk2-2HibernianScotland Premiership
2022-07-12Falkirk1-0HibernianLeague Cup
2017-03-25Hibernian2-1FalkirkChampionship
2016-12-31Falkirk1-2HibernianChampionship
2016-11-12Hibernian1-1FalkirkChampionship
2016-08-06Falkirk1-2HibernianChampionship
2016-04-12Hibernian2-2FalkirkChampionship

Other Matchday 9 fixtures

Before and after this match