Updated

Scotland Premiership · Matchday 12

Falkirk vs Celtic

· Falkirk Stadium, Falkirk

Full time2 – 0

TipsterGrid prediction was Celtic to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 2

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
FalkirkDrawCeltic

Falkirk vs Celtic: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceFalkirkDrawCeltic
Model38%26%36%
Market16%20%64%
Published22%21%57%
Edge+6%+1%-7%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Falkirk vs Celtic odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Celtic, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-25.

Opened 1.30Now 1.48 +0.18
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Falkirk7.505.80-1.70
Draw5.504.72-0.78
Celtic1.301.48+0.18

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Falkirk and Celtic expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.62Falkirk
1.57Celtic
Total expected goals
3.19
Attack rating (Falkirk / Celtic)
0.96 / 1.42
Defence rating (Falkirk / Celtic)
0.91 / 1.08

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Falkirk vs Celtic score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.2% 5.4% 5.1% 2.6% 1.5% 1 5.6% 11.5% 8.2% 4.3% 2.4% 2 5.4% 8.5% 6.7% 3.5% 1.9% 3 2.9% 4.6% 3.6% 1.9% 1.0% 4+ 1.7% 2.7% 2.1% 1.1% 0.6%

Rows: Falkirk goals. Columns: Celtic goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Falkirk vs Celtic goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%
Over 1.5 84%
Over 2.5 62%
Over 3.5 39%
Both teams to score
65%
No goals (0–0)
5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Falkirk vs Celtic

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Falkirk22%4.59
Draw21%4.68
Celtic57%1.76
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.562%1.62
Under 2.538%2.62
Both teams to scoreYes65%1.55
No35%2.82
Double chance1X (Falkirk or draw)43%2.32
12 (either side)79%1.27
X2 (draw or Celtic)78%1.28
Handicap -1Celtic win by 2+18%5.53
Push (exactly one goal)18%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Falkirk and Celtic recent form

Falkirk 4W 1D 1L
Celtic 3W 1D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Falkirk at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-0-3
Win rate
40%
Goals for / match
1.40
Goals against / match
1.40
Clean sheets
1 of 5
  • They have won 4 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
  • 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Celtic away

Record (W-D-L)
5-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
2.40
Goals against / match
0.60
Clean sheets
2 of 5
  • They have won 9 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 2.5 goals per match.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
  • 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Falkirk at home only, Celtic away only.

Expected lineups

Falkirk lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 19 S. Bain
  2. 17 S. Tanser
  3. 5 L. Henderson
  4. 15 L. Neilson
  5. 22 R. Strain
  6. 8 B. Spencer
  7. 21 D. Meļņiks
  8. 42 Owen Eames
  9. 16 Finley Frank Barbrook
  10. 23 E. Ross
  11. 24 J. Murrell

Bench: N. Hogarth, J. McMillan, Ben Parkinson, R. MacIver, C. Sibbald, F. Yeats, C. Allan, C. McLeod, C. Fodrey

Celtic lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 26 S. Johnstone
  2. 63 K. Tierney
  3. 5 L. Scales
  4. 20 C. Carter-Vickers
  5. 51 Colby Donovan
  6. 22 M. Baur
  7. 42 C. McGregor
  8. 19 C. Osmand
  9. 21 A. Oxlade-Chamberlain
  10. 11 C. Durán
  11. 23 H. Hassan

Bench: V. Sinisalo, B. Nygren, K. Høgh, L. Emenalo, L. McCowan, S. Tounekti, Shumaira Mheuka, D. Murray, J. Forrest

Falkirk vs Celtic head-to-head

Last 8 meetings: Falkirk 0 · draws 0 · Celtic 8.

FalkirkDrawsCeltic
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-08-29Celtic2-1FalkirkScotland Premiership
2026-04-25Celtic3-1FalkirkScotland Premiership
2026-02-01Celtic2-0FalkirkScotland Premiership
2026-01-14Falkirk0-1CelticScotland Premiership
2025-10-29Celtic4-0FalkirkScotland Premiership
2025-08-15Celtic4-1FalkirkLeague Cup
2024-09-22Celtic5-2FalkirkLeague Cup
2021-04-03Celtic3-0FalkirkFA Cup

Other Matchday 12 fixtures

Before and after this match