Updated

Scotland Premiership · Matchday 11

Celtic vs Dundee Utd

· Celtic Park, Glasgow

Full time2 – 2

TipsterGrid prediction was Celtic to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 1

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
CelticDrawDundee Utd

Celtic vs Dundee Utd: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceCelticDrawDundee Utd
Model55%23%22%
Market77%15%9%
Published71%17%12%
Edge-5%+2%+3%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.07 vs 1.24.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Celtic vs Dundee Utd odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Celtic, 22 snapshots since 2026-10-18.

Opened 1.26Now 1.22 -0.04
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Celtic1.261.22-0.04
Draw5.606.41+0.81
Dundee Utd9.2011.00+1.80

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Celtic and Dundee Utd expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.07Celtic
1.24Dundee Utd
Total expected goals
3.31
Attack rating (Celtic / Dundee Utd)
1.41 / 1.01
Defence rating (Celtic / Dundee Utd)
1.02 / 0.94

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Celtic vs Dundee Utd score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.6% 3.6% 2.8% 1.2% 0.5% 1 6.6% 10.3% 5.8% 2.4% 1.0% 2 7.8% 9.7% 6.0% 2.5% 1.0% 3 5.4% 6.7% 4.2% 1.7% 0.7% 4+ 4.5% 5.6% 3.5% 1.4% 0.6%

Rows: Celtic goals. Columns: Dundee Utd goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Celtic vs Dundee Utd goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%
Over 1.5 85%
Over 2.5 64%
Over 3.5 42%
Both teams to score
63%
No goals (0–0)
5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Celtic vs Dundee Utd

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Celtic71%1.40
Draw17%5.98
Dundee Utd12%8.47
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.564%1.56
Under 2.536%2.80
Both teams to scoreYes63%1.58
No37%2.71
Double chance1X (Celtic or draw)88%1.13
12 (either side)83%1.20
X2 (draw or Dundee Utd)29%3.51
Handicap -1Celtic win by 2+34%2.95
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Celtic and Dundee Utd recent form

Celtic 3W 0D 3L
Dundee Utd 3W 2D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Celtic at home

Record (W-D-L)
4-0-1
Win rate
80%
Goals for / match
2.60
Goals against / match
0.60
Clean sheets
2 of 5
  • They have won 9 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.5 goals per match.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
  • 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Dundee Utd away

Record (W-D-L)
2-1-2
Win rate
40%
Goals for / match
1.60
Goals against / match
1.60
Clean sheets
2 of 5
  • They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
  • 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Celtic at home only, Dundee Utd away only.

Expected lineups

Celtic lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 26 S. Johnstone
  2. 63 K. Tierney
  3. 5 L. Scales
  4. 47 D. Murray
  5. 51 Colby Donovan
  6. 22 M. Baur
  7. 42 C. McGregor
  8. 19 C. Osmand
  9. 8 B. Nygren
  10. 11 C. Durán
  11. 9 K. Høgh

Bench: V. Sinisalo, Jota, L. Emenalo, O. Sørensen, C. Carter-Vickers, A. Oxlade-Chamberlain, H. Hassan, Shumaira Mheuka, J. Forrest

Dundee Utd lineup · 4-3-3

  1. 1 J. Walton
  2. 19 K. Ciubotaru
  3. 18 M. Forbes
  4. 3 B. Esselink
  5. 23 J. Rawlins
  6. 14 Zidane Iqbal
  7. 10 D. Tait
  8. 16 L. Cameron
  9. 20 N. Farrugia
  10. 9 Z. Sapsford
  11. 21 J. Randall

Bench: I. Iovu, R. Graham, Panutche Camará, L. Rose, D. Naamo, Abdoulaye Yoro, J. Amissah, D. Bennie, I. Metsoko

Celtic vs Dundee Utd head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Celtic 7 · draws 1 · Dundee Utd 2.

CelticDrawsDundee Utd
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-08-15Dundee Utd0-4CelticLeague Cup
2026-03-22Dundee Utd2-0CelticScotland Premiership
2026-01-10Celtic4-0Dundee UtdScotland Premiership
2025-12-17Dundee Utd2-1CelticScotland Premiership
2025-04-26Dundee Utd0-5CelticPremiership
2025-02-15Celtic3-0Dundee UtdPremiership
2025-01-08Celtic2-0Dundee UtdPremiership
2024-12-22Dundee Utd0-0CelticPremiership
2023-01-29Dundee Utd0-2CelticPremiership
2022-11-05Celtic4-2Dundee UtdPremiership

Other Matchday 11 fixtures

Before and after this match