Aberdeen 0-1 Falkirk: Prediction vs Result 28.10.26

Aberdeen vs Falkirk: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Aberdeen	Draw	Falkirk
Model	46%	27%	27%
Market	47%	27%	26%
Published	47%	27%	27%
Edge	0%	0%	0%

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.60 vs 1.18.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Aberdeen vs Falkirk odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Aberdeen, 22 snapshots since 2026-10-18.

Opened 1.92Now 2.00 +0.08

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Aberdeen	1.92	2.00	+0.08
Draw	3.52	3.48	-0.04
Falkirk	3.64	3.55	-0.09

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Aberdeen and Falkirk expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.60Aberdeen

1.18Falkirk

Total expected goals: 2.78
Attack rating (Aberdeen / Falkirk): 0.99 / 0.98
Defence rating (Aberdeen / Falkirk): 1.00 / 1.04

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Aberdeen vs Falkirk score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 7.4% 6.1% 4.3% 1.7% 0.6% 1 8.7% 12.9% 6.9% 2.7% 1.0% 2 7.9% 9.4% 5.5% 2.2% 0.8% 3 4.2% 5.0% 3.0% 1.2% 0.4% 4+ 2.4% 2.9% 1.7% 0.7% 0.3%

Rows: Aberdeen goals. Columns: Falkirk goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Aberdeen vs Falkirk goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%

Over 1.5 78%

Over 2.5 53%

Over 3.5 30%

Both teams to score: 56%
No goals (0–0): 7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Aberdeen vs Falkirk

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Aberdeen	47%	2.15
	Draw	27%	3.71
	Falkirk	27%	3.77
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	53%	1.90
	Under 2.5	47%	2.11
Both teams to score	Yes	56%	1.77
	No	44%	2.30
Double chance	1X (Aberdeen or draw)	73%	1.36
	12 (either side)	73%	1.37
	X2 (draw or Falkirk)	53%	1.87
Handicap -1	Aberdeen win by 2+	24%	4.11
	Push (exactly one goal)	22%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Aberdeen and Falkirk recent form

Aberdeen 2W 2D 2L

Falkirk 3W 2D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Aberdeen at home

Record (W-D-L): 2-1-2
Win rate: 40%
Goals for / match: 1.00
Goals against / match: 0.80
Clean sheets: 1 of 5

They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
They have failed to score in 5 of 10 matches.

Falkirk away

Record (W-D-L): 1-3-1
Win rate: 20%
Goals for / match: 1.00
Goals against / match: 1.00
Clean sheets: 1 of 5

They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.

League matches this season before kick-off: Aberdeen at home only, Falkirk away only.

Expected lineups

Aberdeen lineup · 4-2-3-1

27 M. Müller
24 N. Guinness-Walker
21 G. Molloy
26 D. Happe
28 C. Cadden
32 A. Aremu
8 B. Lyons
9 A. Mouloua
17 S. Armstrong
11 Lewis Smith
15 K. Nisbet

Bench: N. Devlin, K. Tobers, A. Briedl, H. Mahou, T. Olusanya, J. Milne, D. Klein, M. Ntelo, F. Marshall

Falkirk lineup · 4-2-3-1

19 S. Bain
3 L. McCann
5 L. Henderson
15 L. Neilson
22 R. Strain
8 B. Spencer
16 Finley Frank Barbrook
21 D. Meļņiks
42 Owen Eames
23 E. Ross
24 J. Murrell

Bench: N. Hogarth, Ben Parkinson, R. MacIver, C. Sibbald, F. Yeats, S. Tanser, C. McLeod, B. Krauhaus, C. Fodrey

Aberdeen vs Falkirk head-to-head

Last 3 meetings: Aberdeen 0 · draws 1 · Falkirk 2.

0% 33% 67%

AberdeenDrawsFalkirk

Previous meetings
Date	Home	Score	Away	Competition
2026-03-14	Aberdeen	1-1	Falkirk	Scotland Premiership
2026-01-03	Falkirk	1-0	Aberdeen	Scotland Premiership
2025-08-31	Aberdeen	0-1	Falkirk	Scotland Premiership

Other Matchday 11 fixtures

Celtic v Dundee Utd — match page 2026-10-28
ST Mirren vs Hibernian — team news & stats 2026-10-28
Dundee v Kilmarnock — match page 2026-10-28
ST Johnstone vs Motherwell 2026-10-28
Heart Of Midlothian vs Rangers — team news & stats 2026-10-28

Before and after this match

Aberdeen, previous: Dundee Utd vs Aberdeen prediction
Aberdeen, next: Rangers vs Aberdeen: odds and pick
Falkirk, previous: Falkirk – Kilmarnock, 2026-10-24
Falkirk, next: Falkirk – Celtic, 2026-11-01