FC Thun vs Heart Of Midlothian preview
FC Thun faces Heart Of Midlothian with a 38% chance of winning compared to 37% for the visitors. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 7% probability. Both teams have a strong expectation for goals, as our model indicates a 75% chance for over 2.5 goals and 75% for both teams to score.
However, the recent form could impact the outcome. FC Thun has struggled with five matches resulting in two losses, while Heart Of Midlothian shows a mixed record with two wins in their last five. Expected goals are closely matched, with FC Thun at 1.95 and Heart Of Midlothian at 2.00, indicating a competitive fixture ahead.
FC Thun vs Heart Of Midlothian: model vs market
| Source | FC Thun | Draw | Heart Of Midlothian |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 44% | 20% | 36% |
| Market | 42% | 26% | 32% |
| Published | 42% | 25% | 33% |
| Edge | 0% | -1% | +1% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.33, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -1.5% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
FC Thun vs Heart Of Midlothian odds movement
Median bookmaker price on FC Thun, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-30.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Thun | 2.52 | 2.25 | -0.27 |
| Draw | 3.80 | 3.60 | -0.19 |
| Heart Of Midlothian | 2.55 | 2.93 | +0.38 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
FC Thun and Heart Of Midlothian expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.51
- Attack rating (FC Thun / Heart Of Midlothian)
- 1.27 / 1.17
- Defence rating (FC Thun / Heart Of Midlothian)
- 1.53 / 1.12
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
FC Thun vs Heart Of Midlothian score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: FC Thun goals. Columns: Heart Of Midlothian goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
FC Thun vs Heart Of Midlothian goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 81%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for FC Thun vs Heart Of Midlothian
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Thun | 42% | 2.36 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.05 | |
| Heart Of Midlothian | 33% | 3.03 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 83% | 1.21 |
| Under 2.5 | 17% | 5.81 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 81% | 1.24 |
| No | 19% | 5.15 | |
| Double chance | 1X (FC Thun or draw) | 67% | 1.49 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Heart Of Midlothian) | 58% | 1.73 | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Thun win by 2+ | 26% | 3.78 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
FC Thun and Heart Of Midlothian recent form
FC Thun
1W 1D 4L
Heart Of Midlothian
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
FC Thun at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
Heart Of Midlothian away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
League matches this season before kick-off: FC Thun at home only, Heart Of Midlothian away only.
Other League Stage - 3 fixtures
- FC Midtjylland v Ajax — match page 2026-11-05
- Aarhus v SC Braga — match page 2026-11-05
- Atalanta v Kairat Almaty — match page 2026-11-05
- FK Crvena Zvezda vs Inter Club d'Escaldes 2026-11-05
- Lincoln Red Imps FC vs HNK Hajduk Split 2026-11-05
- Trabzonspor v Freiburg — match page 2026-11-05
- KuPS v Gent — match page 2026-11-05
- Mjallby AIF vs Borac Banja Luka — team news & stats 2026-11-05
Before and after this match
- FC Thun, previous: FC Thun – HNK Hajduk Split, 2026-10-22
- Heart Of Midlothian, previous: Trabzonspor v Heart Of Midlothian analysis