Updated

UEFA Europa Conference League · League Stage - 1

Heart Of Midlothian vs FC Nordsjaelland

· Tynecastle Park, Edinburgh· Referee D. Kos

Full time1 – 1

TipsterGrid prediction was FC Nordsjaelland to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 2

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Heart Of MidlothianDrawFC Nordsjaelland

Heart Of Midlothian vs FC Nordsjaelland: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceHeart Of MidlothianDrawFC Nordsjaelland
Model40%26%34%
Market32%25%43%
Published34%25%41%
Edge+2%0%-2%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Heart Of Midlothian vs FC Nordsjaelland odds movement

Median bookmaker price on FC Nordsjaelland, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-09.

Opened 2.28Now 2.20 -0.08
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Heart Of Midlothian2.832.90+0.06
Draw3.673.73+0.06
FC Nordsjaelland2.282.20-0.08

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Heart Of Midlothian and FC Nordsjaelland expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.61Heart Of Midlothian
1.49FC Nordsjaelland
Total expected goals
3.10
Attack rating (Heart Of Midlothian / FC Nordsjaelland)
1.29 / 1.24
Defence rating (Heart Of Midlothian / FC Nordsjaelland)
1.01 / 0.75

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Heart Of Midlothian vs FC Nordsjaelland score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.6% 5.6% 5.0% 2.5% 1.3% 1 6.2% 11.9% 8.0% 4.0% 2.1% 2 5.8% 8.7% 6.5% 3.2% 1.7% 3 3.1% 4.7% 3.5% 1.7% 0.9% 4+ 1.8% 2.7% 2.0% 1.0% 0.5%

Rows: Heart Of Midlothian goals. Columns: FC Nordsjaelland goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Heart Of Midlothian vs FC Nordsjaelland goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%
Over 1.5 83%
Over 2.5 60%
Over 3.5 38%
Both teams to score
63%
No goals (0–0)
6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Heart Of Midlothian vs FC Nordsjaelland

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Heart Of Midlothian34%2.93
Draw25%3.95
FC Nordsjaelland41%2.47
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.560%1.67
Under 2.540%2.49
Both teams to scoreYes63%1.59
No37%2.71
Double chance1X (Heart Of Midlothian or draw)59%1.68
12 (either side)75%1.34
X2 (draw or FC Nordsjaelland)66%1.52
Handicap -1FC Nordsjaelland win by 2+17%5.96
Push (exactly one goal)18%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Heart Of Midlothian and FC Nordsjaelland recent form

Heart Of Midlothian 4W 1D 1L
FC Nordsjaelland 2W 2D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Heart Of Midlothian at home

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-0
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
0 of 1

FC Nordsjaelland away

Record (W-D-L)
2-0-1
Win rate
67%
Goals for / match
1.67
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
1 of 3
  • They have won 5 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.8 goals per match.
  • They average 4.0 goals per game at home against 1.7 on the road.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 6 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Heart Of Midlothian at home only, FC Nordsjaelland away only.

Expected lineups

Heart Of Midlothian lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 Beau Reus
  2. 18 Harry Milne
  3. 5 Jamie McCart
  4. 64 Malachi Fagan-Walcott
  5. 2 Christian Borchgrevink
  6. 78 Laurent Mendy
  7. 6 Oisin McEntee
  8. 15 Josh McPake
  9. 10 Cláudio Braga
  10. 7 Calvin Miller
  11. 21 James Wilson

Bench: Stephen Kingsley, Jerome Williams, Pierre Landry Kaboré, Stuart Findlay, Severin Sabri Guendouz, Jordi Altena, Zander Clark, Sabah Kerjota, Ryan Fulton, Finlay Pollock, Matthew Gillies, Rogers Mato

FC Nordsjaelland lineup · 3-4-3

  1. 13 Andreas Hansen
  2. 4 Noah Markmann
  3. 3 Tobias Salquist
  4. 25 Victor Nelsson
  5. 5 Juho Lähteenmäki
  6. 6 Mark Brink
  7. 18 Justin Janssen
  8. 23 Runar Robinsonn Norheim
  9. 10 Prince Amoako Junior
  10. 11 Alexander Lind
  11. 14 Ibrahim Adel

Bench: Peter Ankersen, Nicklas Røjkjær, Ola Solbakken, Stephen Acquah, Jakob Busk, Malte Heyde, Carljohan Eriksson, Markus Walker, Villum Berthelsen, Lamine Sadio, Hjalte Boe Rasmussen, William Faber

Other League Stage - 1 fixtures

Before and after this match