Updated

Scotland Premiership · Matchday 11

ST Johnstone vs Motherwell

· McDiarmid Park, Perth

Full time2 – 2

TipsterGrid prediction was ST Johnstone to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 0

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
ST JohnstoneDrawMotherwell

ST Johnstone vs Motherwell: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceST JohnstoneDrawMotherwell
Model58%24%18%
Market37%28%35%
Published42%27%31%
Edge+5%-1%-4%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.89 vs 0.97.
  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
  • The market prices ST Johnstone below our published probability: +5.2 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

ST Johnstone vs Motherwell odds movement

Median bookmaker price on ST Johnstone, 22 snapshots since 2026-10-18.

Opened 2.21Now 2.51 +0.30
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
ST Johnstone2.212.51+0.30
Draw3.423.35-0.07
Motherwell3.002.69-0.31

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

ST Johnstone and Motherwell expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.89ST Johnstone
0.97Motherwell
Total expected goals
2.86
Attack rating (ST Johnstone / Motherwell)
0.91 / 0.83
Defence rating (ST Johnstone / Motherwell)
0.96 / 1.33

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

ST Johnstone vs Motherwell score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.8% 4.5% 2.7% 0.9% 0.3% 1 9.8% 11.5% 5.1% 1.6% 0.5% 2 10.3% 9.9% 4.8% 1.5% 0.5% 3 6.5% 6.3% 3.0% 1.0% 0.3% 4+ 4.7% 4.6% 2.2% 0.7% 0.2%

Rows: ST Johnstone goals. Columns: Motherwell goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

ST Johnstone vs Motherwell goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%
Over 1.5 79%
Over 2.5 54%
Over 3.5 32%
Both teams to score
54%
No goals (0–0)
7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for ST Johnstone vs Motherwell

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2ST Johnstone42%2.36
Draw27%3.70
Motherwell31%3.27
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.554%1.84
Under 2.546%2.19
Both teams to scoreYes54%1.86
No46%2.16
Double chance1X (ST Johnstone or draw)69%1.44
12 (either side)73%1.37
X2 (draw or Motherwell)58%1.74
Handicap -1ST Johnstone win by 2+35%2.88
Push (exactly one goal)23%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

ST Johnstone and Motherwell recent form

ST Johnstone 2W 2D 2L
Motherwell 0W 0D 6L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

ST Johnstone at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-2-1
Win rate
40%
Goals for / match
1.60
Goals against / match
1.40
Clean sheets
0 of 5
  • They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
  • They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
  • 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Motherwell away

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-3
Win rate
20%
Goals for / match
1.60
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
0 of 5
  • They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They average 1.6 goals per game on the road against 0.6 at home.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 10 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: ST Johnstone at home only, Motherwell away only.

Expected lineups

ST Johnstone lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 T. Steward
  2. 2 E. Alıç
  3. 3 C. Diabate
  4. 19 D. Finlayson
  5. 26 M. Todd
  6. 42 R. McAlear
  7. 8 J. Holt
  8. 7 T. Steven
  9. 10 J. Gullan
  10. 99 R. Paton
  11. 9 J. Fowler

Bench: M. Boyes, B. Mikulić, M. Foulds, R. Sinclair, D. Schmidt, L. Chalmers, M. Tait, J. Cotterill, J. Campbell

Motherwell lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 A. Paulsen
  2. 45 M. Emmanuel
  3. 5 M. Moormann
  4. 3 J. Girdwood-Reich
  5. 7 T. Sparrow
  6. 63 D. Levitt
  7. 6 J. McGhee
  8. 71 J. Hodge
  9. 19 I. Said
  10. 18 Tawanda Jethro Maswanhise
  11. 47 S. Palmer-Houlden

Bench: S. O'Donnell, Jamie Knight-Lebel, L. Fadinger, J. Kanga, E. Björgólfs­son, R. Charles-Cook, M. Connelly, M. Booth, W. Vogt

ST Johnstone vs Motherwell head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: ST Johnstone 3 · draws 3 · Motherwell 4.

ST JohnstoneDrawsMotherwell
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2025-08-16ST Johnstone0-1MotherwellLeague Cup
2025-04-26Motherwell3-2ST JohnstonePremiership
2025-01-25ST Johnstone2-1MotherwellPremiership
2025-01-18ST Johnstone1-0MotherwellScotland FA Cup
2024-11-09Motherwell2-1ST JohnstonePremiership
2024-08-31ST Johnstone1-2MotherwellPremiership
2024-05-19Motherwell1-2ST JohnstonePremiership
2024-01-27ST Johnstone1-1MotherwellPremiership
2023-12-09Motherwell1-1ST JohnstonePremiership
2023-11-07ST Johnstone2-2MotherwellPremiership

Other Matchday 11 fixtures

Before and after this match