Dundee vs Kilmarnock: model vs market
| Source | Dundee | Draw | Kilmarnock |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 58% | 22% | 19% |
| Market | 48% | 25% | 26% |
| Published | 51% | 25% | 25% |
| Edge | +3% | -1% | -2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.12 vs 1.16.
- The market prices Dundee below our published probability: +2.5 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Dundee vs Kilmarnock odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Dundee, 22 snapshots since 2026-10-18.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dundee | 1.90 | 1.95 | +0.05 |
| Draw | 3.63 | 3.70 | +0.07 |
| Kilmarnock | 3.61 | 3.55 | -0.06 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Dundee and Kilmarnock expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.28
- Attack rating (Dundee / Kilmarnock)
- 1.07 / 0.96
- Defence rating (Dundee / Kilmarnock)
- 1.00 / 1.28
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Dundee vs Kilmarnock score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Dundee goals. Columns: Kilmarnock goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Dundee vs Kilmarnock goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 61%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Dundee vs Kilmarnock
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Dundee | 51% | 1.97 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.06 | |
| Kilmarnock | 25% | 4.05 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64% | 1.57 |
| Under 2.5 | 36% | 2.76 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61% | 1.63 |
| No | 39% | 2.59 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Dundee or draw) | 75% | 1.33 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Kilmarnock) | 49% | 2.03 | |
| Handicap -1 | Dundee win by 2+ | 37% | 2.74 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Dundee and Kilmarnock recent form
Dundee
2W 2D 2L
Kilmarnock
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Dundee at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-1
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.60
- Goals against / match
- 1.20
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- 56% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Kilmarnock away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-3
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Dundee at home only, Kilmarnock away only.
Expected lineups
Dundee lineup · 4-4-2
- 1 O. Goodman
- 12 I. Samuels
- 26 J. Wright
- 4 R. Astley
- 7 D. Wright
- 14 A. Forrest
- 48 E. Hamilton
- 28 C. Jones
- 27 J. Bevan
- 21 B. Fink
- 11 A. Hay
Bench: B. Halliday, I. Odutayo, M. Akinmboni, Ž. Bešir, C. Reilly, J. Westley, H. Sharp, Alfie Harrison
Kilmarnock lineup · 5-3-2
- 58 N. Mantl
- 21 M. Schjønning-Larsen
- 6 R. Deas
- 4 C. McCarthy
- 14 G. Stanger
- 2 J. Brandon
- 11 G. Kiltie
- 36 A. Tshibola
- 18 T. Lowery
- 9 J. Hugill
- 10 T. John-Jules
Bench: Michael-John Kamson-Kamara, R. McKenzie, E. Ring, C. Ferrie, J. Meier, Roshaun Mathurin, I. Owen, D. Daniels, R. Ellis
Dundee vs Kilmarnock head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Dundee 3 · draws 4 · Kilmarnock 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-12 | Kilmarnock | 3-1 | Dundee | Scotland Premiership |
| 2026-04-11 | Kilmarnock | 2-2 | Dundee | Scotland Premiership |
| 2026-01-17 | Kilmarnock | 1-2 | Dundee | Scotland FA Cup |
| 2025-12-30 | Dundee | 2-1 | Kilmarnock | Scotland Premiership |
| 2025-08-23 | Kilmarnock | 0-0 | Dundee | Scotland Premiership |
| 2025-05-10 | Kilmarnock | 3-2 | Dundee | Premiership |
| 2024-11-30 | Kilmarnock | 1-1 | Dundee | Premiership |
| 2024-11-03 | Dundee | 3-2 | Kilmarnock | Premiership |
| 2024-10-05 | Dundee | 2-3 | Kilmarnock | Premiership |
| 2024-05-18 | Dundee | 1-1 | Kilmarnock | Premiership |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Celtic v Dundee Utd — match page 2026-10-28
- ST Mirren vs Hibernian — team news & stats 2026-10-28
- Aberdeen vs Falkirk 2026-10-28
- ST Johnstone vs Motherwell 2026-10-28
- Heart Of Midlothian vs Rangers — team news & stats 2026-10-28
Before and after this match
- Dundee, previous: ST Mirren – Dundee, 2026-10-24
- Dundee, next: ST Johnstone – Dundee, 2026-11-07
- Kilmarnock, previous: Falkirk – Kilmarnock, 2026-10-24
- Kilmarnock, next: Kilmarnock – ST Johnstone, 2026-10-31