Benfica 4-1 Celtic: Prediction vs Result 15.10.26

Benfica vs Celtic: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Benfica	Draw	Celtic
Model	65%	20%	15%
Market	79%	13%	8%
Published	76%	15%	10%
Edge	-3%	+2%	+2%

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.32 vs 1.07.
Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Benfica vs Celtic odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Benfica, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-09.

Opened 1.25Now 1.20 -0.05

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Benfica	1.25	1.20	-0.05
Draw	5.93	7.30	+1.37
Celtic	9.90	12.00	+2.10

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Benfica and Celtic expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.32Benfica

1.07Celtic

Total expected goals: 3.40
Attack rating (Benfica / Celtic): 1.77 / 1.30
Defence rating (Benfica / Celtic): 0.71 / 0.85

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Benfica vs Celtic score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.2% 2.8% 1.9% 0.7% 0.2% 1 6.9% 9.2% 4.5% 1.6% 0.5% 2 9.0% 9.7% 5.2% 1.9% 0.6% 3 7.0% 7.5% 4.0% 1.4% 0.5% 4+ 7.0% 7.5% 4.0% 1.4% 0.5%

Rows: Benfica goals. Columns: Celtic goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Benfica vs Celtic goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%

Over 1.5 86%

Over 2.5 66%

Over 3.5 44%

Both teams to score: 60%
No goals (0–0): 4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Benfica vs Celtic

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Benfica	76%	1.32
	Draw	15%	6.79
	Celtic	10%	10.40
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	66%	1.51
	Under 2.5	34%	2.97
Both teams to score	Yes	60%	1.67
	No	40%	2.50
Double chance	1X (Benfica or draw)	90%	1.11
	12 (either side)	85%	1.17
	X2 (draw or Celtic)	24%	4.11
Handicap -1	Benfica win by 2+	43%	2.34
	Push (exactly one goal)	22%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Benfica and Celtic recent form

Benfica 5W 0D 1L

Celtic 4W 0D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Benfica at home

Record (W-D-L): 3-0-0
Win rate: 100%
Goals for / match: 4.67
Goals against / match: 0.67
Clean sheets: 1 of 3

They have won 5 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 3.0 goals per match.
They average 4.7 goals per game at home against 1.8 on the road.
They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Benfica at home only, Celtic away only.