Kilmarnock vs Motherwell: model vs market
| Source | Kilmarnock | Draw | Motherwell |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 47% | 26% | 27% |
| Market | 30% | 26% | 44% |
| Published | 34% | 26% | 40% |
| Edge | +4% | 0% | -4% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Kilmarnock vs Motherwell odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Motherwell, 55 snapshots since 2026-09-20.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kilmarnock | 3.02 | 3.12 | +0.09 |
| Draw | 3.55 | 3.65 | +0.10 |
| Motherwell | 2.17 | 2.10 | -0.06 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Kilmarnock and Motherwell expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.02
- Attack rating (Kilmarnock / Motherwell)
- 0.95 / 0.88
- Defence rating (Kilmarnock / Motherwell)
- 1.21 / 1.21
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Kilmarnock vs Motherwell score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Kilmarnock goals. Columns: Motherwell goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Kilmarnock vs Motherwell goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 61%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Kilmarnock vs Motherwell
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kilmarnock | 34% | 2.91 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.90 | |
| Motherwell | 40% | 2.50 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58% | 1.72 |
| Under 2.5 | 42% | 2.38 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61% | 1.65 |
| No | 39% | 2.53 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Kilmarnock or draw) | 60% | 1.67 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Motherwell) | 66% | 1.52 | |
| Handicap -1 | Motherwell win by 2+ | 12% | 8.44 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 15% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Kilmarnock and Motherwell recent form
Kilmarnock
1W 2D 3L
Motherwell
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Kilmarnock at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.50
- Goals against / match
- 2.75
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game on the road against 0.5 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Motherwell away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-2
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.75
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game on the road against 0.8 at home.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Kilmarnock at home only, Motherwell away only.
Expected lineups
Kilmarnock lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 12 C. Ferrie
- 21 M. Schjønning-Larsen
- 14 G. Stanger
- 4 C. McCarthy
- 3 Michael-John Kamson-Kamara
- 18 T. Lowery
- 49 B. Rice
- 11 G. Kiltie
- 10 T. John-Jules
- 8 E. Ring
- 9 J. Hugill
Bench: J. Brandon, M. O'Hara, R. Deas, J. Meier, N. Cleșcenco, I. Owen, D. Daniels, A. Tshibola, N. Mantl
Motherwell lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 1 A. Paulsen
- 45 M. Emmanuel
- 5 M. Moormann
- 2 S. O'Donnell
- 7 T. Sparrow
- 71 J. Hodge
- 8 L. Fadinger
- 19 I. Said
- 11 A. Lowry
- 18 Tawanda Jethro Maswanhise
- 47 S. Palmer-Houlden
Bench: J. Girdwood-Reich, Jamie Knight-Lebel, J. McGhee, J. Kanga, E. Björgólfsson, M. Connelly, J. Koutroumbis, D. Levitt, W. Vogt
Kilmarnock vs Motherwell head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Kilmarnock 2 · draws 4 · Motherwell 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-24 | Motherwell | 4-0 | Kilmarnock | Scotland Premiership |
| 2025-11-22 | Kilmarnock | 1-3 | Motherwell | Scotland Premiership |
| 2025-08-30 | Motherwell | 2-2 | Kilmarnock | Scotland Premiership |
| 2025-05-14 | Motherwell | 3-0 | Kilmarnock | Premiership |
| 2025-04-05 | Kilmarnock | 2-0 | Motherwell | Premiership |
| 2025-01-08 | Kilmarnock | 0-0 | Motherwell | Premiership |
| 2024-12-20 | Motherwell | 1-1 | Kilmarnock | Premiership |
| 2024-08-18 | Motherwell | 1-0 | Kilmarnock | League Cup |
| 2024-02-03 | Motherwell | 1-1 | Kilmarnock | Premiership |
| 2023-11-04 | Kilmarnock | 1-0 | Motherwell | Premiership |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Hibernian vs Falkirk — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Aberdeen v ST Mirren — match page 2026-10-17
- ST Johnstone vs Dundee Utd 2026-10-17
- Dundee vs Rangers — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Celtic v Heart Of Midlothian — match page 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- Kilmarnock, previous: Rangers vs Kilmarnock: odds and pick
- Kilmarnock, next: Falkirk – Kilmarnock, 2026-10-24
- Motherwell, previous: Motherwell v Celtic analysis
- Motherwell, next: Motherwell v Heart Of Midlothian analysis