Updated

Scotland Premiership · Matchday 11

Heart Of Midlothian vs Rangers

· Tynecastle Park, Edinburgh

Full time2 – 2

TipsterGrid prediction was Rangers to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 2

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Heart Of MidlothianDrawRangers

Heart Of Midlothian vs Rangers: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceHeart Of MidlothianDrawRangers
Model24%25%50%
Market25%25%50%
Published25%25%50%
Edge0%0%0%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.78 vs 1.18.
  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Heart Of Midlothian vs Rangers odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Rangers, 22 snapshots since 2026-10-18.

Opened 2.10Now 1.86 -0.24
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Heart Of Midlothian3.113.74+0.62
Draw3.583.76+0.18
Rangers2.101.86-0.24

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Heart Of Midlothian and Rangers expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.18Heart Of Midlothian
1.78Rangers
Total expected goals
2.96
Attack rating (Heart Of Midlothian / Rangers)
1.17 / 1.24
Defence rating (Heart Of Midlothian / Rangers)
1.19 / 0.65

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Heart Of Midlothian vs Rangers score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.3% 8.1% 8.2% 4.9% 3.2% 1 5.0% 12.0% 9.7% 5.8% 3.8% 2 3.6% 6.4% 5.7% 3.4% 2.3% 3 1.4% 2.5% 2.3% 1.3% 0.9% 4+ 0.5% 1.0% 0.9% 0.5% 0.3%

Rows: Heart Of Midlothian goals. Columns: Rangers goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Heart Of Midlothian vs Rangers goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%
Over 1.5 81%
Over 2.5 57%
Over 3.5 34%
Both teams to score
59%
No goals (0–0)
6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Heart Of Midlothian vs Rangers

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Heart Of Midlothian25%4.03
Draw25%4.00
Rangers50%1.99
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.557%1.76
Under 2.543%2.32
Both teams to scoreYes59%1.70
No41%2.42
Double chance1X (Heart Of Midlothian or draw)50%2.01
12 (either side)75%1.33
X2 (draw or Rangers)75%1.33
Handicap -1Rangers win by 2+28%3.51
Push (exactly one goal)22%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Heart Of Midlothian and Rangers recent form

Heart Of Midlothian 2W 2D 2L
Rangers 5W 1D 0L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Heart Of Midlothian at home

Record (W-D-L)
4-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
3.25
Goals against / match
0.50
Clean sheets
2 of 4
  • They have won 6 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
  • They average 3.2 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Rangers away

Record (W-D-L)
3-2-0
Win rate
60%
Goals for / match
1.40
Goals against / match
0.80
Clean sheets
2 of 5
  • They have won 7 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 10 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
  • 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Heart Of Midlothian at home only, Rangers away only.

Expected lineups

Heart Of Midlothian lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 B. Reus
  2. 74 R. Mato
  3. 5 J. McCart
  4. 64 M. Fagan-Walcott
  5. 23 J. Altena
  6. 22 T. Magnússon
  7. 78 L. Mendy
  8. 15 J. McPake
  9. 7 C. Miller
  10. 29 S. Kerjota
  11. 10 Cláudio Braga

Bench: S. Kingsley, J. Williams, P. Kabore, S. Guendouz, J. Wilson, R. Fulton, Y. Dhanda, A. Ba-Sy

Rangers lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 I. Pandur
  2. 29 J. Penrice
  3. 24 O. Makhanya
  4. 37 E. Fernandez
  5. 21 D. Sterling
  6. 6 D. Neil
  7. 43 N. Raskin
  8. 23 D. Gassama
  9. 20 R. Naderi
  10. 10 Minsu Kim
  11. 19 K. Kelsy

Bench: B. Godfrey, K. Nedeljković, V. Dragojević, T. Rommens, B. Bouanani, B. Miovski, L. Kelly, T. Chukwuani, Findlay Curtis

Heart Of Midlothian vs Rangers head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Heart Of Midlothian 3 · draws 2 · Rangers 5.

Heart Of MidlothianDrawsRangers
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-04Heart Of Midlothian2-1RangersScotland Premiership
2026-02-15Rangers4-2Heart Of MidlothianScotland Premiership
2025-12-21Heart Of Midlothian2-1RangersScotland Premiership
2025-09-13Rangers0-2Heart Of MidlothianScotland Premiership
2025-02-16Heart Of Midlothian1-3RangersPremiership
2024-11-10Rangers1-0Heart Of MidlothianPremiership
2024-08-03Heart Of Midlothian0-0RangersPremiership
2024-05-18Heart Of Midlothian3-3RangersPremiership
2024-04-21Rangers2-0Heart Of MidlothianFA Cup
2024-02-24Rangers5-0Heart Of MidlothianPremiership

Other Matchday 11 fixtures

Before and after this match