Updated

Serie A · Matchday 11

Torino vs Lecce

· Stadio Olimpico di Torino, Turin

TipsterGrid prediction Torino to win

Ablended with market odds

Predicted score 2 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
TorinoDrawLecce
  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.90 vs 1.48.
  • RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Torino is the favourite, not a value bet.
Best market odds
Torino1.87 Draw3.84 Lecce5.00

Price as of

Expected return at 1.87: -5.9% per unit staked

18+ · T&Cs apply · best price across 10 bookmakers, each at its own last update; the highlighted price is our pick.

Torino vs Lecce preview

Torino faces Lecce with a 49% chance of winning compared to Lecce's 25%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 9% probability. Both teams have a 69% chance of scoring, and the model predicts over 2.5 goals in 69% of scenarios. Torino's expected goals stand at 2.08, while Lecce's is 1.48.

However, Torino's recent form shows inconsistency with two wins in their last six matches. Lecce, despite a poor run, managed to secure a win recently, which could influence their performance. The head-to-head record favors Torino, with 3 wins in the last 6 encounters, but Lecce's ability to pull off surprises remains a factor.

Why this pick: Torino vs Lecce

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Torino 10, Lecce 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

TorinoLecce
1.32 xG per 90 1.57
1.32 npxG per 90 1.57
17.0 PPDA 12.4
4.0 Deep completions per 90 4.0
1.37 xPTS per 90 0.81

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Torino vs Lecce: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceTorinoDrawLecce
Model45%26%29%
Market52%26%22%
Published50%26%23%
Edge-2%0%+2%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.90 vs 1.48.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.87, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -5.9% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).

Torino vs Lecce odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Torino, 10 snapshots since 2026-10-31.

Opened 2.01Now 1.82 -0.19
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Torino2.011.82-0.19
Draw3.813.65-0.16
Lecce3.924.43+0.51

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Torino and Lecce expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.90Torino
1.48Lecce
Total expected goals
3.38
Attack rating (Torino / Lecce)
0.90 / 1.08
Defence rating (Torino / Lecce)
1.11 / 1.57

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Torino vs Lecce score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.3% 3.1% 3.7% 1.8% 0.9% 1 4.6% 11.5% 7.1% 3.5% 1.8% 2 6.2% 9.1% 6.7% 3.3% 1.7% 3 3.9% 5.8% 4.3% 2.1% 1.1% 4+ 2.9% 4.2% 3.1% 1.5% 0.8%

Rows: Torino goals. Columns: Lecce goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Torino vs Lecce goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%
Over 1.5 87%
Over 2.5 66%
Over 3.5 44%
Both teams to score
68%
No goals (0–0)
5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Torino vs Lecce

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Torino50%1.99
Draw26%3.81
Lecce23%4.27
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.566%1.51
Under 2.534%2.97
Both teams to scoreYes68%1.47
No32%3.15
Double chance1X (Torino or draw)77%1.31
12 (either side)74%1.36
X2 (draw or Lecce)50%2.01
Handicap -1Torino win by 2+27%3.74
Push (exactly one goal)19%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Torino and Lecce recent form

Torino 3W 1D 2L
Lecce 1W 0D 5L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Torino at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-0-3
Win rate
40%
Goals for / match
1.40
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
0 of 5
  • They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

Lecce away

Record (W-D-L)
2-0-3
Win rate
40%
Goals for / match
1.20
Goals against / match
1.80
Clean sheets
2 of 5
  • They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.
  • 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Torino at home only, Lecce away only.

Torino vs Lecce head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Torino 6 · draws 1 · Lecce 3.

TorinoDrawsLecce
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-02-01Torino1-0LecceSerie A
2025-11-30Lecce2-1TorinoSerie A
2025-05-18Lecce1-0TorinoSerie A
2024-09-15Torino0-0LecceSerie A
2024-02-16Torino2-0LecceSerie A
2023-10-28Lecce0-1TorinoSerie A
2023-03-12Lecce0-2TorinoSerie A
2022-09-05Torino1-0LecceSerie A
2020-10-28Torino3-1LecceCoppa Italia
2020-02-02Lecce4-0TorinoSerie A

Other Matchday 11 fixtures

Before and after this match

Prediction snapshot Torino to win Predicted score 2 – 1 A Bet on Torino
Our pick: Torino to win 18+ Bet Now