Roma vs Sassuolo preview
In the Serie A fixture between Roma and Sassuolo, the key figure is Roma's 67% probability of winning, compared to Sassuolo's 15%. The model predicts a most likely scoreline of 3-1, with 90% probability for over 2.5 goals and 80% for both teams to score.
Roma's recent form shows 4 wins out of their last 5 matches, while Sassuolo has struggled with 4 losses in their last 5. Despite Roma's strong head-to-head record of 4 wins against Sassuolo, the potential for an upset exists, particularly if Sassuolo can improve from their recent performances.
Why this pick: Roma vs Sassuolo
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Roma 10, Sassuolo 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Roma vs Sassuolo: model vs market
| Source | Roma | Draw | Sassuolo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 73% | 14% | 13% |
| Market | 71% | 17% | 12% |
| Published | 72% | 16% | 12% |
| Edge | +1% | -1% | 0% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.99 vs 1.89.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.35, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -3.4% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Roma vs Sassuolo odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Roma, 10 snapshots since 2026-10-31.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Roma | 1.53 | 1.30 | -0.23 |
| Draw | 4.96 | 5.95 | +0.99 |
| Sassuolo | 6.29 | 8.55 | +2.26 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Roma and Sassuolo expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 5.88
- Attack rating (Roma / Sassuolo)
- 1.81 / 1.17
- Defence rating (Roma / Sassuolo)
- 1.30 / 1.64
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Roma vs Sassuolo score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Roma goals. Columns: Sassuolo goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Roma vs Sassuolo goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 80%
- No goals (0–0)
- 1%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Roma vs Sassuolo
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Roma | 72% | 1.40 |
| Draw | 16% | 6.11 | |
| Sassuolo | 12% | 8.25 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 90% | 1.11 |
| Under 2.5 | 10% | 10.22 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 80% | 1.25 |
| No | 20% | 4.99 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Roma or draw) | 88% | 1.14 |
| 12 (either side) | 84% | 1.20 | |
| X2 (draw or Sassuolo) | 28% | 3.51 | |
| Handicap -1 | Roma win by 2+ | 59% | 1.69 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 15% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Roma and Sassuolo recent form
Roma
4W 1D 1L
Sassuolo
0W 1D 5L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Roma at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-1-0
- Win rate
- 80%
- Goals for / match
- 2.80
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 6 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.8 goals per game at home against 2.2 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
Sassuolo away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-4
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 2.40
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Roma at home only, Sassuolo away only.
Roma vs Sassuolo head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Roma 4 · draws 0 · Sassuolo 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-10 | Roma | 2-0 | Sassuolo | Serie A |
| 2025-10-26 | Sassuolo | 0-1 | Roma | Serie A |
| 2024-03-17 | Roma | 1-0 | Sassuolo | Serie A |
| 2023-12-03 | Sassuolo | 1-2 | Roma | Serie A |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Venezia v Udinese — match page 2026-11-06
- Cagliari vs Frosinone 2026-11-07
- Torino vs Lecce — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Parma Calcio 1913 vs Bologna — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Napoli v Lazio — match page 2026-11-08
- Genoa vs AC Milan — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Monza vs Atalanta 2026-11-08
- Inter vs Como 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Roma, previous: Manchester United – Roma, 2026-11-03
- Sassuolo, previous: Sassuolo v Fiorentina analysis