Genoa vs AC Milan preview
In the Serie A fixture between Genoa and AC Milan, the probabilities show AC Milan at 50% to win, compared to Genoa's 23%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with a 9% chance according to our model. Genoa's expected goals stand at 1.40, while AC Milan's is slightly higher at 1.65.
Genoa's recent form shows 3 wins in their last 6 matches, while AC Milan has 4 wins in the same span. However, AC Milan has dominated their recent head-to-head encounters, winning 3 out of the last 6 matches, with Genoa failing to secure a win. The model also indicates a 59% probability for over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance for both teams to score, which could influence the match outcome.
Why this pick: Genoa vs AC Milan
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Genoa 10, AC Milan 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Genoa vs AC Milan: model vs market
| Source | Genoa | Draw | AC Milan |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 31% | 28% | 41% |
| Market | 21% | 26% | 53% |
| Published | 23% | 27% | 50% |
| Edge | +2% | +1% | -3% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.85, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -6.9% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Genoa vs AC Milan odds movement
Median bookmaker price on AC Milan, 10 snapshots since 2026-10-31.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Genoa | 5.05 | 4.64 | -0.41 |
| Draw | 3.71 | 3.60 | -0.11 |
| AC Milan | 1.82 | 1.80 | -0.02 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Genoa and AC Milan expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.13
- Attack rating (Genoa / AC Milan)
- 0.94 / 1.33
- Defence rating (Genoa / AC Milan)
- 0.98 / 1.19
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Genoa vs AC Milan score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Genoa goals. Columns: AC Milan goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Genoa vs AC Milan goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 63%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Genoa vs AC Milan
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Genoa | 23% | 4.33 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.76 | |
| AC Milan | 50% | 1.99 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59% | 1.70 |
| Under 2.5 | 41% | 2.43 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63% | 1.59 |
| No | 37% | 2.71 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Genoa or draw) | 50% | 2.01 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or AC Milan) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| Handicap -1 | AC Milan win by 2+ | 20% | 4.99 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Genoa and AC Milan recent form
Genoa
4W 0D 2L
AC Milan
4W 0D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Genoa at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.17
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
AC Milan away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-3-0
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.60
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 5 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 1.6 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- 47% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Genoa at home only, AC Milan away only.
Genoa vs AC Milan head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Genoa 0 · draws 3 · AC Milan 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-17 | Genoa | 1-2 | AC Milan | Serie A |
| 2026-01-08 | AC Milan | 1-1 | Genoa | Serie A |
| 2025-05-05 | Genoa | 1-2 | AC Milan | Serie A |
| 2024-12-15 | AC Milan | 0-0 | Genoa | Serie A |
| 2024-05-05 | AC Milan | 3-3 | Genoa | Serie A |
| 2023-10-07 | Genoa | 0-1 | AC Milan | Serie A |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Cagliari vs Frosinone 2026-11-07
- Torino vs Lecce — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Parma Calcio 1913 vs Bologna — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Roma vs Sassuolo 2026-11-07
- Napoli v Lazio — match page 2026-11-08
- Monza vs Atalanta 2026-11-08
- Inter vs Como 2026-11-08
- Fiorentina v Juventus — match page 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Genoa, previous: Lecce – Genoa, 2026-11-01
- AC Milan, previous: AC Milan v Ferencvarosi TC analysis