Monza vs Atalanta preview
In the upcoming match between Monza and Atalanta, the probabilities indicate a 32% chance for Monza to win, 25% for a draw, and 44% for an Atalanta victory. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-2, occurring at a rate of 7%. A significant factor to consider is that both teams have a 74% probability of scoring, alongside an expected goals tally of 1.98 for Monza and 1.86 for Atalanta.
Monza's recent form shows 2 wins and 3 losses, while Atalanta has 2 wins, 2 losses, and 2 draws in their last 6 matches. Atalanta has dominated their last 4 encounters, winning all of them against Monza. This historical performance could influence the outcome, despite the close expected goals figures.
Why this pick: Monza vs Atalanta
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Monza 10, Atalanta 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Monza vs Atalanta: model vs market
| Source | Monza | Draw | Atalanta |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 40% | 24% | 36% |
| Market | 29% | 25% | 46% |
| Published | 32% | 25% | 44% |
| Edge | +3% | 0% | -3% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.11, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -7.8% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Monza vs Atalanta odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Atalanta, 10 snapshots since 2026-10-31.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monza | 4.95 | 3.32 | -1.63 |
| Draw | 4.43 | 3.75 | -0.68 |
| Atalanta | 1.70 | 2.06 | +0.36 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Monza and Atalanta expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.83
- Attack rating (Monza / Atalanta)
- 1.14 / 1.08
- Defence rating (Monza / Atalanta)
- 1.27 / 1.38
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Monza vs Atalanta score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Monza goals. Columns: Atalanta goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Monza vs Atalanta goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 74%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Monza vs Atalanta
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Monza | 32% | 3.17 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.04 | |
| Atalanta | 44% | 2.29 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74% | 1.35 |
| Under 2.5 | 26% | 3.82 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 74% | 1.34 |
| No | 26% | 3.91 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Monza or draw) | 56% | 1.78 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Atalanta) | 68% | 1.46 | |
| Handicap -1 | Atalanta win by 2+ | 15% | 6.51 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 14% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Monza and Atalanta recent form
Monza
2W 0D 4L
Atalanta
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Monza at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.25
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Atalanta away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 2.25
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
League matches this season before kick-off: Monza at home only, Atalanta away only.
Monza vs Atalanta head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Monza 0 · draws 0 · Atalanta 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-04 | Monza | 0-4 | Atalanta | Serie A |
| 2024-10-30 | Atalanta | 2-0 | Monza | Serie A |
| 2024-04-21 | Monza | 1-2 | Atalanta | Serie A |
| 2023-09-02 | Atalanta | 3-0 | Monza | Serie A |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Cagliari vs Frosinone 2026-11-07
- Torino vs Lecce — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Parma Calcio 1913 vs Bologna — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Roma vs Sassuolo 2026-11-07
- Napoli v Lazio — match page 2026-11-08
- Genoa vs AC Milan — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Inter vs Como 2026-11-08
- Fiorentina v Juventus — match page 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Monza, previous: Bologna vs Monza: odds and pick
- Atalanta, previous: Atalanta – Kairat Almaty, 2026-11-05