Venezia vs Udinese preview
In the fixture between Venezia and Udinese, the model gives Venezia a 44% chance to win, while Udinese sits at 30%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1, which occurs with an 8% probability. Venezia has an expected goals figure of 2.50, significantly higher than Udinese's 1.63, indicating a stronger attacking performance.
However, recent form could impact the outcome. Venezia has lost 5 of their last 6 matches, while Udinese has drawn once and lost 5 in the same period. This trend raises questions about both teams' current capabilities, despite the statistical edge for Venezia. The model also suggests a high likelihood of over 2.5 goals at 78% and both teams scoring at 75%.
Why this pick: Venezia vs Udinese
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Venezia 10, Udinese 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Venezia vs Udinese: model vs market
| Source | Venezia | Draw | Udinese |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 53% | 22% | 25% |
| Market | 44% | 26% | 30% |
| Published | 46% | 25% | 29% |
| Edge | +2% | -1% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.38 vs 1.65.
- Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Venezia below our published probability: +2.2 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.22, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +2.7% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Venezia vs Udinese odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Venezia, 10 snapshots since 2026-10-31.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Venezia | 2.44 | 2.18 | -0.26 |
| Draw | 3.52 | 3.52 | +0.00 |
| Udinese | 3.10 | 3.21 | +0.11 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Venezia and Udinese expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.03
- Attack rating (Venezia / Udinese)
- 1.14 / 0.95
- Defence rating (Venezia / Udinese)
- 1.40 / 1.55
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Venezia vs Udinese score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Venezia goals. Columns: Udinese goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Venezia vs Udinese goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 75%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Venezia vs Udinese
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Venezia | 46% | 2.16 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.97 | |
| Udinese | 29% | 3.51 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 77% | 1.30 |
| Under 2.5 | 23% | 4.30 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 75% | 1.34 |
| No | 25% | 3.96 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Venezia or draw) | 71% | 1.40 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Udinese) | 54% | 1.86 | |
| Handicap -1 | Venezia win by 2+ | 34% | 2.96 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Venezia and Udinese recent form
Venezia
1W 0D 5L
Udinese
0W 1D 5L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Venezia at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-4
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 0.60
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 1 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 10 matches.
Udinese away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-2
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.75
- Goals against / match
- 2.25
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 1 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 0.7 at home.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Venezia at home only, Udinese away only.
Injuries & availability
Venezia absences
-
A. Adorante
hernia
-
B. Franjic
shoulder injury
-
M. Sverko
hip injury
- T. Correia thigh injury
Udinese absences
-
A. Zanoli
muscle injury
- D. Alaba calf injury
- I. Gueye ankle injury
-
O. Solet
muscle injury
- V. Bayo thigh injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Venezia vs Udinese head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Venezia 1 · draws 0 · Udinese 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Udinese | 2-1 | Venezia | Coppa Italia |
| 2025-02-01 | Udinese | 3-2 | Venezia | Serie A |
| 2024-10-30 | Venezia | 3-2 | Udinese | Serie A |
| 2022-04-10 | Venezia | 1-2 | Udinese | Serie A |
| 2021-08-27 | Udinese | 3-0 | Venezia | Serie A |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Cagliari vs Frosinone 2026-11-07
- Torino vs Lecce — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Parma Calcio 1913 vs Bologna — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Roma vs Sassuolo 2026-11-07
- Napoli v Lazio — match page 2026-11-08
- Genoa vs AC Milan — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Monza vs Atalanta 2026-11-08
- Inter vs Como 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Venezia, previous: Como v Venezia analysis
- Udinese, previous: Udinese vs Roma prediction