Parma Calcio 1913 vs Bologna preview
In the Serie A fixture between Parma Calcio 1913 and Bologna, the probabilities indicate a 25% chance for Parma to win, while Bologna stands at 48%. The most likely scoreline from our model is 1-2, which aligns with Bologna's expected goals of 2.02 compared to Parma's 1.16.
Parma's recent form shows a struggle with 1 win in their last 6 matches, while Bologna has been stronger, winning 4 of their last 6. Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals are projected at 61%. The main reason this could deviate is if Parma's home advantage significantly impacts their performance, despite their low confidence grade.
Why this pick: Parma Calcio 1913 vs Bologna
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Parma Calcio 1913 10, Bologna 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Parma Calcio 1913 vs Bologna: model vs market
| Source | Parma Calcio 1913 | Draw | Bologna |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 20% | 25% | 55% |
| Market | 21% | 27% | 52% |
| Published | 21% | 27% | 53% |
| Edge | 0% | 0% | +1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.81 vs 1.39.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.89, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -0.6% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Parma Calcio 1913 vs Bologna odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Bologna, 10 snapshots since 2026-10-31.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Parma Calcio 1913 | 3.71 | 4.50 | +0.79 |
| Draw | 3.60 | 3.55 | -0.05 |
| Bologna | 2.13 | 1.85 | -0.28 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Parma Calcio 1913 and Bologna expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.20
- Attack rating (Parma Calcio 1913 / Bologna)
- 0.93 / 1.23
- Defence rating (Parma Calcio 1913 / Bologna)
- 1.19 / 1.11
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Parma Calcio 1913 vs Bologna score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Parma Calcio 1913 goals. Columns: Bologna goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Parma Calcio 1913 vs Bologna goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 61%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Parma Calcio 1913 vs Bologna
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Parma Calcio 1913 | 21% | 4.82 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.76 | |
| Bologna | 53% | 1.90 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61% | 1.63 |
| Under 2.5 | 39% | 2.59 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61% | 1.63 |
| No | 39% | 2.59 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Parma Calcio 1913 or draw) | 47% | 2.11 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Bologna) | 79% | 1.26 | |
| Handicap -1 | Bologna win by 2+ | 26% | 3.87 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Parma Calcio 1913 and Bologna recent form
Parma Calcio 1913
2W 1D 3L
Bologna
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Parma Calcio 1913 at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-2
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 0.60
- Goals against / match
- 1.20
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 1 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 9 matches.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Bologna away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-2
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 1.60
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Parma Calcio 1913 at home only, Bologna away only.
Parma Calcio 1913 vs Bologna head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Parma Calcio 1913 2 · draws 1 · Bologna 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-08 | Bologna | 0-1 | Parma Calcio 1913 | Serie A |
| 2025-12-04 | Bologna | 2-1 | Parma Calcio 1913 | Coppa Italia |
| 2025-11-02 | Parma Calcio 1913 | 1-3 | Bologna | Serie A |
| 2025-02-22 | Parma Calcio 1913 | 2-0 | Bologna | Serie A |
| 2024-10-06 | Bologna | 0-0 | Parma Calcio 1913 | Serie A |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Venezia v Udinese — match page 2026-11-06
- Cagliari vs Frosinone 2026-11-07
- Torino vs Lecce — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Roma vs Sassuolo 2026-11-07
- Napoli v Lazio — match page 2026-11-08
- Genoa vs AC Milan — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Monza vs Atalanta 2026-11-08
- Inter vs Como 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Parma Calcio 1913, previous: Atalanta v Parma Calcio 1913 analysis
- Bologna, previous: Bologna vs Monza: odds and pick