Cagliari vs Frosinone preview
In the Serie A fixture between Cagliari and Frosinone, the probabilities indicate a close contest with Cagliari at 36% to win, Frosinone at 41%, and a draw at 23%. The most likely scoreline from our model is 1-2, which occurs with a 6% probability. The expected goals suggest a higher attacking output for Frosinone at 2.70 compared to Cagliari's 2.09.
Cagliari's recent form shows 3 losses in the last 5 matches, while Frosinone has 3 wins in the same span. This could impact their performance, as Frosinone's recent success might give them an edge. Additionally, the model predicts an 86% chance of over 2.5 goals and an 83% chance for both teams to score, indicating a potentially high-scoring match.
Why this pick: Cagliari vs Frosinone
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Cagliari 10, Frosinone 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Cagliari vs Frosinone: model vs market
| Source | Cagliari | Draw | Frosinone |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 25% | 20% | 55% |
| Market | 36% | 26% | 39% |
| Published | 33% | 24% | 43% |
| Edge | -3% | -1% | +4% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.71 vs 1.85.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Frosinone below our published probability: +4.1 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.50, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +7.0% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Cagliari vs Frosinone odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Frosinone, 10 snapshots since 2026-10-31.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cagliari | 2.22 | 2.75 | +0.52 |
| Draw | 4.13 | 3.70 | -0.43 |
| Frosinone | 3.10 | 2.44 | -0.66 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Cagliari and Frosinone expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.57
- Attack rating (Cagliari / Frosinone)
- 1.06 / 1.55
- Defence rating (Cagliari / Frosinone)
- 1.42 / 1.30
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Cagliari vs Frosinone score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Cagliari goals. Columns: Frosinone goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Cagliari vs Frosinone goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 80%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Cagliari vs Frosinone
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cagliari | 33% | 3.03 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.14 | |
| Frosinone | 43% | 2.34 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 83% | 1.20 |
| Under 2.5 | 17% | 6.04 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 80% | 1.25 |
| No | 20% | 4.98 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Cagliari or draw) | 57% | 1.75 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or Frosinone) | 67% | 1.49 | |
| Handicap -1 | Frosinone win by 2+ | 37% | 2.69 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Cagliari and Frosinone recent form
Cagliari
1W 1D 4L
Frosinone
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Cagliari at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-2
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 0.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game on the road against 0.5 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Frosinone away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-1
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 6 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.7 goals per game at home against 2.0 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Cagliari at home only, Frosinone away only.
Cagliari vs Frosinone head-to-head
Last 7 meetings: Cagliari 3 · draws 3 · Frosinone 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-23 | Cagliari | 4-1 | Frosinone | Coppa Italia |
| 2024-01-21 | Frosinone | 3-1 | Cagliari | Serie A |
| 2023-10-29 | Cagliari | 4-3 | Frosinone | Serie A |
| 2023-04-15 | Cagliari | 0-0 | Frosinone | Serie B |
| 2022-11-27 | Frosinone | 2-2 | Cagliari | Serie B |
| 2019-04-20 | Cagliari | 1-0 | Frosinone | Serie A |
| 2018-12-02 | Frosinone | 1-1 | Cagliari | Serie A |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Venezia v Udinese — match page 2026-11-06
- Torino vs Lecce — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Parma Calcio 1913 vs Bologna — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Roma vs Sassuolo 2026-11-07
- Napoli v Lazio — match page 2026-11-08
- Genoa vs AC Milan — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Monza vs Atalanta 2026-11-08
- Inter vs Como 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Cagliari, previous: Lazio – Cagliari, 2026-11-01
- Frosinone, previous: Frosinone vs Torino prediction