Inter vs Como preview
In the Serie A fixture between Inter and Como, Inter has a 51% probability of winning, while Como stands at 26%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1, with a 7% chance of occurring. A key factor that could challenge this prediction is Como's recent form, where they have won 4 of their last 5 matches, indicating strong performance.
Our model suggests a high likelihood of goals, with an 82% chance of over 2.5 goals and an 81% probability that both teams will score. Expected goals metrics show Inter at 2.33 and Como at 2.13, reflecting the potential for a competitive match. Inter's head-to-head advantage, with 5 wins and 1 draw in their last 6 encounters, adds to their confidence.
Why this pick: Inter vs Como
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Inter 10, Como 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Inter vs Como: model vs market
| Source | Inter | Draw | Como |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 43% | 22% | 35% |
| Market | 54% | 23% | 23% |
| Published | 51% | 22% | 26% |
| Edge | -3% | 0% | +3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.36 vs 1.94.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.83, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -6.2% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Inter vs Como odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Inter, 10 snapshots since 2026-10-31.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inter | 1.65 | 1.79 | +0.14 |
| Draw | 4.54 | 4.20 | -0.34 |
| Como | 5.26 | 4.00 | -1.26 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Inter and Como expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.30
- Attack rating (Inter / Como)
- 1.74 / 1.69
- Defence rating (Inter / Como)
- 0.93 / 1.01
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Inter vs Como score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Inter goals. Columns: Como goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Inter vs Como goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 81%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Inter vs Como
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Inter | 51% | 1.95 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.46 | |
| Como | 26% | 3.81 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 82% | 1.22 |
| Under 2.5 | 18% | 5.60 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 81% | 1.24 |
| No | 19% | 5.17 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Inter or draw) | 74% | 1.36 |
| 12 (either side) | 78% | 1.29 | |
| X2 (draw or Como) | 49% | 2.05 | |
| Handicap -1 | Inter win by 2+ | 29% | 3.44 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Inter and Como recent form
Inter
5W 0D 1L
Como
5W 0D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Inter at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 3.40
- Goals against / match
- 1.40
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 8 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.8 goals per match.
- They average 3.4 goals per game at home against 2.0 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
Como away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-1-1
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 2.17
- Goals against / match
- 1.17
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 6
- They have won 6 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game on the road against 1.3 at home.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Inter at home only, Como away only.
Inter vs Como head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Inter 5 · draws 1 · Como 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-21 | Inter | 3-2 | Como | Coppa Italia |
| 2026-04-12 | Como | 3-4 | Inter | Serie A |
| 2026-03-03 | Como | 0-0 | Inter | Coppa Italia |
| 2025-12-06 | Inter | 4-0 | Como | Serie A |
| 2025-05-23 | Como | 0-2 | Inter | Serie A |
| 2024-12-23 | Inter | 2-0 | Como | Serie A |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Cagliari vs Frosinone 2026-11-07
- Torino vs Lecce — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Parma Calcio 1913 vs Bologna — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Roma vs Sassuolo 2026-11-07
- Napoli v Lazio — match page 2026-11-08
- Genoa vs AC Milan — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Monza vs Atalanta 2026-11-08
- Fiorentina v Juventus — match page 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Inter, previous: Feyenoord v Inter analysis
- Como, previous: Lens v Como analysis