FC Sion vs Lausanne: model vs market
| Source | FC Sion | Draw | Lausanne |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 51% | 23% | 27% |
| Market | 63% | 20% | 17% |
| Published | 60% | 21% | 19% |
| Edge | -3% | +1% | +2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.12 vs 1.53.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
FC Sion vs Lausanne odds movement
Median bookmaker price on FC Sion, 13 snapshots since 2026-10-19.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Sion | 1.49 | 1.50 | +0.01 |
| Draw | 4.65 | 4.60 | -0.05 |
| Lausanne | 5.45 | 5.52 | +0.07 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
FC Sion and Lausanne expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.65
- Attack rating (FC Sion / Lausanne)
- 1.29 / 0.99
- Defence rating (FC Sion / Lausanne)
- 0.98 / 0.91
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
FC Sion vs Lausanne score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: FC Sion goals. Columns: Lausanne goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
FC Sion vs Lausanne goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 70%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for FC Sion vs Lausanne
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Sion | 60% | 1.68 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.77 | |
| Lausanne | 19% | 5.14 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 71% | 1.42 |
| Under 2.5 | 29% | 3.40 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70% | 1.43 |
| No | 30% | 3.30 | |
| Double chance | 1X (FC Sion or draw) | 81% | 1.24 |
| 12 (either side) | 79% | 1.26 | |
| X2 (draw or Lausanne) | 40% | 2.47 | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Sion win by 2+ | 31% | 3.28 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
FC Sion and Lausanne recent form
FC Sion
4W 1D 1L
Lausanne
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
FC Sion at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-1
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 2.20
- Goals against / match
- 1.40
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 6 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
Lausanne away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-3
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 0.40
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 1 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 10 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: FC Sion at home only, Lausanne away only.
Expected lineups
FC Sion lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 1 A. Racioppi
- 20 N. Hefti
- 17 J. Kronig
- 28 K. Hajrizi
- 14 N. Lavanchy
- 21 L. Chipperfield
- 88 A. Kabacalman
- 29 T. Berdayes
- 77 D. Rrudhani
- 7 I. Chouaref
- 13 Winsley Boteli Mokango
Bench: N. Sow, Marquinhos Cipriano, J. Lukembila, B. Kololli, F. Ruberto, F. Surdez, Damien Moschinger, R. Nivokazi, F. Sylla
Lausanne lineup · 3-4-3
- 90 M. Mastil
- 31 N. Cozza
- 71 K. Sow
- 4 É. Youté
- 18 M. Poaty
- 47 Papa Souleymane N'Diaye
- 29 A. Blin
- 2 B. Soppy
- 9 E. Molébé
- 78 Omar Janneh
- 11 N. Butler-Oyedeji
Bench: T. Castella, D. Ngonzo, A. Ajdini, O. Custodio, S. Traore, T. Cordier, I. Bah Mendes Mayala, F. Mollet
FC Sion vs Lausanne head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: FC Sion 5 · draws 2 · Lausanne 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | FC Sion | 3-0 | Lausanne | Switzerland Super League |
| 2025-11-09 | Lausanne | 2-2 | FC Sion | Switzerland Super League |
| 2025-09-28 | FC Sion | 0-0 | Lausanne | Switzerland Super League |
| 2025-04-05 | Lausanne | 2-0 | FC Sion | Super League |
| 2024-11-23 | Lausanne | 1-0 | FC Sion | Super League |
| 2024-07-27 | FC Sion | 4-0 | Lausanne | Super League |
| 2023-07-01 | Lausanne | 3-1 | FC Sion | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2022-05-19 | Lausanne | 1-2 | FC Sion | Super League |
| 2022-03-02 | FC Sion | 1-0 | Lausanne | Super League |
| 2021-12-19 | FC Sion | 2-0 | Lausanne | Super League |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- FC Zurich v FC Luzern — match page 2026-10-24
- Servette FC vs FC Vaduz 2026-10-24
- BSC Young Boys vs FC ST. Gallen — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- FC Thun vs FC Lugano — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- FC Basel 1893 v Grasshoppers — match page 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- FC Sion, previous: Servette FC vs FC Sion prediction
- FC Sion, next: FC Luzern – FC Sion, 2026-10-31
- Lausanne, previous: FC ST. Gallen vs Lausanne prediction
- Lausanne, next: Lausanne vs FC Thun prediction