Updated

UEFA Champions League · League Stage - 4

Atletico Madrid vs Bayern Munich

· Riyadh Air Metropolitano, Madrid· Referee Francois Letexier

Full time0 – 2

TipsterGrid prediction was Bayern Munich to win

Ablended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 2

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Atletico MadridDrawBayern Munich

Why this pick: Atletico Madrid vs Bayern Munich

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Atletico Madrid 10, Bayern Munich 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

Atletico MadridBayern Munich
2.34 xG per 90 3.92
2.13 npxG per 90 3.67
10.3 PPDA 9.0
10.3 Deep completions per 90 15.8
2.14 xPTS per 90 2.80

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Atletico Madrid vs Bayern Munich: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceAtletico MadridDrawBayern Munich
Model27%23%50%
Market34%25%41%
Published33%24%43%
Edge-2%-1%+2%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.13 vs 1.56.
  • The market prices Bayern Munich below our published probability: +2.3 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Atletico Madrid vs Bayern Munich odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Bayern Munich, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-28.

Opened 1.98Now 2.34 +0.36
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Atletico Madrid3.272.80-0.48
Draw4.003.90-0.10
Bayern Munich1.982.34+0.36

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Atletico Madrid and Bayern Munich expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.56Atletico Madrid
2.13Bayern Munich
Total expected goals
3.69
Attack rating (Atletico Madrid / Bayern Munich)
1.08 / 2.02
Defence rating (Atletico Madrid / Bayern Munich)
0.81 / 0.75

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Atletico Madrid vs Bayern Munich score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.3% 4.5% 5.7% 4.0% 3.5% 1 3.1% 9.1% 8.8% 6.3% 5.5% 2 3.0% 6.5% 6.9% 4.9% 4.3% 3 1.6% 3.4% 3.6% 2.5% 2.2% 4+ 0.9% 1.8% 2.0% 1.4% 1.2%

Rows: Atletico Madrid goals. Columns: Bayern Munich goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Atletico Madrid vs Bayern Munich goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%
Over 1.5 89%
Over 2.5 71%
Over 3.5 50%
Both teams to score
70%
No goals (0–0)
3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Atletico Madrid vs Bayern Munich

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Atletico Madrid33%3.07
Draw24%4.15
Bayern Munich43%2.31
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.571%1.41
Under 2.529%3.47
Both teams to scoreYes70%1.42
No30%3.37
Double chance1X (Atletico Madrid or draw)57%1.76
12 (either side)76%1.32
X2 (draw or Bayern Munich)67%1.48
Handicap -1Bayern Munich win by 2+30%3.31
Push (exactly one goal)20%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Atletico Madrid and Bayern Munich recent form

Atletico Madrid 5W 1D 0L
Bayern Munich 3W 3D 0L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Atletico Madrid at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
0.00
Clean sheets
1 of 1

Bayern Munich away

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-0
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
3.00
Goals against / match
3.00
Clean sheets
0 of 1

League matches this season before kick-off: Atletico Madrid at home only, Bayern Munich away only.

Injuries & availability

Atletico Madrid absences

  • J. Cardoso thigh injury
  • M. Hjulmand suspended

Bayern Munich absences

  • I. Saibari ankle injury
  • J. Musiala muscle injury
  • L. Diaz muscle injury
  • S. Gnabry muscle injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Atletico Madrid lineup · 4-4-2

  1. 13 J. Oblak
  2. 22 Álex Grimaldo
  3. 17 D. Hancko
  4. 24 Robin Le Normand
  5. 18 Marc Pubill
  6. 10 Álex Baena
  7. 8 Pablo Barrios
  8. 14 Marcos Llorente
  9. 20 G. Simeone
  10. 9 A. Sørloth
  11. 19 J. Álvarez

Bench: J. Musso, O. Vargas, Rodrigo Mendoza, Koke, Lee Kang-In, A. Lookman, J. David, Arnau Ortiz, R. Hueso, J. Dominguez, Dani Martínez, J. Castillo

Bayern Munich lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 M. Neuer
  2. 44 J. Stanišić
  3. 4 J. Tah
  4. 2 D. Upamecano
  5. 27 K. Laimer
  6. 8 T. Bischof
  7. 6 J. Kimmich
  8. 19 A. Davies
  9. 17 M. Olise
  10. 42 L. Karl
  11. 9 H. Kane

Bench: Kim Min-Jae, N. Brown, H. Ito, S. Boey, S. Ulreich, J. Urbig, A. Pavlović, T. Binder, David Daiber

Atletico Madrid vs Bayern Munich head-to-head

Last 6 meetings: Atletico Madrid 2 · draws 1 · Bayern Munich 3.

Atletico MadridDrawsBayern Munich
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2020-12-01Atletico Madrid1-1Bayern MunichUEFA Champions League
2020-10-21Bayern Munich4-0Atletico MadridUEFA Champions League
2016-12-06Bayern Munich1-0Atletico MadridUEFA Champions League
2016-09-28Atletico Madrid1-0Bayern MunichUEFA Champions League
2016-05-03Bayern Munich2-1Atletico MadridUEFA Champions League
2016-04-27Atletico Madrid1-0Bayern MunichUEFA Champions League

Other League Stage - 4 fixtures

Before and after this match