Updated

UEFA Champions League · League Stage - 4

Shakhtar Donetsk vs Sporting CP

· Stamford Bridge, London· Referee Ivan Kruzliak

Full time0 – 1

TipsterGrid prediction was Sporting CP to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 0 – 1

7% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Shakhtar DonetskDrawSporting CP

Shakhtar Donetsk vs Sporting CP: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceShakhtar DonetskDrawSporting CP
Model53%28%18%
Market28%26%47%
Published34%26%40%
Edge+6%+1%-7%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Shakhtar Donetsk vs Sporting CP odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Sporting CP, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-28.

Opened 1.94Now 2.05 +0.11
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Shakhtar Donetsk3.603.45-0.15
Draw3.703.75+0.05
Sporting CP1.942.05+0.11

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Shakhtar Donetsk and Sporting CP expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.53Shakhtar Donetsk
0.80Sporting CP
Total expected goals
2.34
Attack rating (Shakhtar Donetsk / Sporting CP)
1.02 / 1.24
Defence rating (Shakhtar Donetsk / Sporting CP)
0.49 / 0.78

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Shakhtar Donetsk vs Sporting CP score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 10.9% 6.6% 3.1% 0.8% 0.2% 1 13.6% 13.1% 4.8% 1.3% 0.3% 2 11.3% 9.1% 3.7% 1.0% 0.2% 3 5.8% 4.7% 1.9% 0.5% 0.1% 4+ 3.1% 2.5% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1%

Rows: Shakhtar Donetsk goals. Columns: Sporting CP goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Shakhtar Donetsk vs Sporting CP goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 89%
Over 1.5 69%
Over 2.5 41%
Over 3.5 21%
Both teams to score
44%
No goals (0–0)
11%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Shakhtar Donetsk vs Sporting CP

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Shakhtar Donetsk34%2.93
Draw26%3.82
Sporting CP40%2.52
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.541%2.42
Under 2.559%1.70
Both teams to scoreYes44%2.25
No56%1.80
Double chance1X (Shakhtar Donetsk or draw)60%1.66
12 (either side)74%1.35
X2 (draw or Sporting CP)66%1.52
Handicap -1Sporting CP win by 2+6%16.63
Push (exactly one goal)12%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Shakhtar Donetsk and Sporting CP recent form

Shakhtar Donetsk 4W 1D 1L
Sporting CP 3W 1D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Shakhtar Donetsk at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
3.00
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
0 of 1

Sporting CP away

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
0.00
Clean sheets
1 of 1

League matches this season before kick-off: Shakhtar Donetsk at home only, Sporting CP away only.

Injuries & availability

Shakhtar Donetsk absences

  • D. Tvardovskyi off the roster
  • Eguinaldo shoulder injury
  • M. Shved off the roster
  • Marlon muscle injury
  • Pedrinho muscle injury
  • T. Puzankov off the roster
  • V. Korniyenko off the roster

Sporting CP absences

  • N. Santos knee injury
  • S. Alexandropoulos off the roster
  • Z. Debast injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Shakhtar Donetsk lineup · 4-1-4-1

  1. 31 D. Riznyk
  2. 13 Pedrinho
  3. 22 M. Matvienko
  4. 5 V. Bondar
  5. 17 Vinícius Tobias
  6. 29 E. Nazaryna
  7. 77 G. Mendoza
  8. 6 Marlon Gomes
  9. 27 O. Ocheretko
  10. 30 Alisson Santana
  11. 9 Kauã Elias

Bench: L. Traoré, D. Kryskiv, Newertton, Isaque, I. Azarovi, A. Ghram, O. Karavaev, K. Fesyun, Gabriel Carvalho, Lucas Ferreira, Luca Meirelles, P. Obah

Sporting CP lineup · 3-5-2

  1. 1 Rui Silva
  2. 25 Gonçalo Inácio
  3. 73 Eduardo Felicíssimo
  4. 72 Eduardo Quaresma
  5. 20 M. Araújo
  6. 77 I. Doumbia
  7. 5 Sergi Altimira
  8. 4 S. Andersen
  9. 10 Geny Catamo
  10. 7 F. Ioannidis
  11. 97 L. Suárez

Bench: João Simões, Rafael Ferreira Nel, R. Zalazar, N. Irankunda, Pedro Lima, Iván Fresneda, J. Derry, Kaique, Luis Guilherme, Ibrahima Ba, Flávio Gonçalves, Salvador Blopa

Other League Stage - 4 fixtures

Before and after this match