Updated

UEFA Champions League · League Stage - 4

Bodo/Glimt vs Lille

· Aspmyra Stadion, Hakata· Referee Joao Pinheiro

Full time0 – 0

TipsterGrid prediction was Bodo/Glimt to win

Bblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Bodo/GlimtDrawLille

Bodo/Glimt vs Lille: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceBodo/GlimtDrawLille
Model69%17%14%
Market56%23%21%
Published59%21%19%
Edge+3%-1%-2%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.74 vs 1.20.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Bodo/Glimt below our published probability: +3.3 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Bodo/Glimt vs Lille odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Bodo/Glimt, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-28.

Opened 1.85Now 1.72 -0.14
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Bodo/Glimt1.851.72-0.14
Draw3.914.20+0.29
Lille3.604.47+0.87

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Bodo/Glimt and Lille expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.74Bodo/Glimt
1.20Lille
Total expected goals
3.94
Attack rating (Bodo/Glimt / Lille)
1.37 / 0.92
Defence rating (Bodo/Glimt / Lille)
1.00 / 1.04

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Bodo/Glimt vs Lille score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 2.6% 1.7% 1.4% 0.6% 0.2% 1 4.7% 7.0% 3.8% 1.5% 0.6% 2 7.3% 8.8% 5.3% 2.1% 0.8% 3 6.7% 8.0% 4.8% 1.9% 0.7% 4+ 8.9% 10.7% 6.4% 2.6% 1.0%

Rows: Bodo/Glimt goals. Columns: Lille goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Bodo/Glimt vs Lille goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%
Over 1.5 91%
Over 2.5 75%
Over 3.5 56%
Both teams to score
66%
No goals (0–0)
3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Bodo/Glimt vs Lille

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Bodo/Glimt59%1.69
Draw21%4.66
Lille19%5.13
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.575%1.33
Under 2.525%4.04
Both teams to scoreYes66%1.52
No34%2.94
Double chance1X (Bodo/Glimt or draw)81%1.24
12 (either side)79%1.27
X2 (draw or Lille)41%2.44
Handicap -1Bodo/Glimt win by 2+49%2.03
Push (exactly one goal)20%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Bodo/Glimt and Lille recent form

Bodo/Glimt 4W 0D 2L
Lille 2W 2D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Bodo/Glimt at home

Record (W-D-L)
3-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
2.33
Goals against / match
0.67
Clean sheets
2 of 3
  • They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

Lille away

Record (W-D-L)
0-0-1
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.00
Goals against / match
3.00
Clean sheets
0 of 1

League matches this season before kick-off: Bodo/Glimt at home only, Lille away only.

Injuries & availability

Bodo/Glimt absences

  • A. Mikkelsen groin injury
  • H. Evjen knee injury
  • I. Sjong injury

Lille absences

  • A. Ueda foot injury
  • E. Mbappe suspended
  • H. Igamane knee injury
  • N. Bentaleb illness
  • T. Santos knee injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Bodo/Glimt lineup · 4-3-3

  1. 12 N. Haikin
  2. 15 F. Bjørkan
  3. 5 H. Aleesami
  4. 4 O. Bjørtuft
  5. 20 F. Sjøvold
  6. 19 S. Fet
  7. 7 P. Berg
  8. 8 S. Auklend
  9. 10 J. Hauge
  10. 9 A. Helmersen
  11. 11 O. Didrik Blomberg

Bench: J. Faye Lund, V. Nielsen, J. Gundersen, U. Saltnes, J. Kitolano, O. Brynhildsen, J. Mvuka, M. Riisnæs, I. Määttä

Lille lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 B. Özer
  2. 24 C. Verdonk
  3. 26 I. Cossier
  4. 23 T. Nianzou
  5. 3 N. Ngoy
  6. 14 M. Kjærgaard
  7. 21 B. André
  8. 35 S. Diaoune
  9. 17 N. Mukau
  10. 7 D. Bakwa
  11. 10 H. Haraldsson

Bench: L. Srdanovic, Alexsandro Ribeiro, O. Giroud, O. Sahraoui, O. Gill, G. Perrin, M. Goffi

Other League Stage - 4 fixtures

Before and after this match