Updated

UEFA Champions League · League Stage - 4

Manchester United vs Roma

· Old Trafford, Manchester· Referee Jesus Gil Manzano

Full time3 – 2

TipsterGrid prediction was Manchester United to win

Ablended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

6% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Manchester UnitedDrawRoma

Why this pick: Manchester United vs Roma

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Manchester United 10, Roma 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

Manchester UnitedRoma
1.21 xG per 90 2.31
1.21 npxG per 90 2.31
13.0 PPDA 10.3
8.7 Deep completions per 90 8.6
0.88 xPTS per 90 1.74

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Manchester United vs Roma: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceManchester UnitedDrawRoma
Model29%21%50%
Market44%24%32%
Published41%23%37%
Edge-4%-1%+5%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Manchester United vs Roma odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Manchester United, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-28.

Opened 2.30Now 2.15 -0.15
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Manchester United2.302.15-0.15
Draw3.814.05+0.24
Roma2.753.00+0.25

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Manchester United and Roma expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.86Manchester United
2.44Roma
Total expected goals
4.29
Attack rating (Manchester United / Roma)
0.96 / 1.52
Defence rating (Manchester United / Roma)
1.23 / 1.00

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Manchester United vs Roma score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 2.0% 2.7% 4.1% 3.3% 3.6% 1 1.9% 6.8% 7.5% 6.1% 6.6% 2 2.4% 5.7% 7.0% 5.7% 6.2% 3 1.5% 3.6% 4.3% 3.5% 3.8% 4+ 1.0% 2.5% 3.1% 2.5% 2.7%

Rows: Manchester United goals. Columns: Roma goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Manchester United vs Roma goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 98%
Over 1.5 93%
Over 2.5 80%
Over 3.5 62%
Both teams to score
78%
No goals (0–0)
2%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Manchester United vs Roma

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Manchester United41%2.46
Draw23%4.38
Roma37%2.74
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.580%1.25
Under 2.520%5.02
Both teams to scoreYes78%1.29
No22%4.45
Double chance1X (Manchester United or draw)63%1.58
12 (either side)77%1.30
X2 (draw or Roma)59%1.68
Handicap -1Manchester United win by 2+15%6.67
Push (exactly one goal)14%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Manchester United and Roma recent form

Manchester United 0W 2D 4L
Roma 4W 1D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Manchester United at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
4.00
Goals against / match
0.00
Clean sheets
1 of 1

Roma away

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-0
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
0 of 1

League matches this season before kick-off: Manchester United at home only, Roma away only.

Injuries & availability

Manchester United absences

  • B. Sesko leg injury
  • L. Shaw injury
  • M. Rashford hip injury
  • M. Ugarte knee injury
  • P. Dorgu hamstring injury

Roma absences

  • L. Pellegrini thigh injury
  • M. Kone muscle injury
  • M. Svilar toe injury
  • P. Dybala calf injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Manchester United lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 S. Lammens
  2. 2 Diogo Dalot
  3. 26 A. Heaven
  4. 5 H. Maguire
  5. 15 L. Yoro
  6. 20 C. Baleba
  7. 37 K. Mainoo
  8. 16 A. Diallo
  9. 8 Bruno Fernandes
  10. 19 B. Mbeumo
  11. 10 Matheus Cunha

Bench: N. Mazraoui, M. de Ligt, Lisandro Martínez, M. Mount, J. Zirkzee, K. Darlow, Andrey Santos, Y. Tielemans, T. Heaton, S. Lacey, T. Fletcher, H. Amass

Roma lineup · 3-4-2-1

  1. 32 D. Vásquez
  2. 22 Hermoso
  3. 26 L. Balerdi
  4. 23 G. Mancini
  5. 43 Wesley
  6. 15 M. de Roon
  7. 4 B. Cristante
  8. 2 D. Rensch
  9. 18 M. Soulé
  10. 86 Rodrigo Mora
  11. 14 D. Malen

Bench: K. Koulierakis, E. Ndicka, S. Castro, N. Molina, N. Pisilli, G. De Marzi, E. Lulli, D. Ghilardi

Manchester United vs Roma head-to-head

Last 2 meetings: Manchester United 1 · draws 0 · Roma 1.

Manchester UnitedDrawsRoma
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2021-05-06Roma3-2Manchester UnitedUEFA Europa League
2021-04-29Manchester United6-2RomaUEFA Europa League

Other League Stage - 4 fixtures

Before and after this match