Updated

UEFA Champions League · League Stage - 3

Sabah FA vs Borussia Dortmund

· Baku Olympic Stadium, Baku· Referee Javier Alberola Rojas

Full time1 – 2

TipsterGrid prediction was Borussia Dortmund to win

Bblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 2

5% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Sabah FADrawBorussia Dortmund

Sabah FA vs Borussia Dortmund: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceSabah FADrawBorussia Dortmund
Model60%24%16%
Market10%16%74%
Published22%18%60%
Edge+12%+2%-14%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Sabah FA vs Borussia Dortmund odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Borussia Dortmund, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-15.

Opened 1.33Now 1.29 -0.04
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Sabah FA7.499.55+2.06
Draw5.506.00+0.50
Borussia Dortmund1.331.29-0.04

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Sabah FA and Borussia Dortmund expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.89Sabah FA
0.89Borussia Dortmund
Total expected goals
2.78
Attack rating (Sabah FA / Borussia Dortmund)
1.35 / 1.22
Defence rating (Sabah FA / Borussia Dortmund)
0.56 / 0.74

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Sabah FA vs Borussia Dortmund score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 7.2% 4.5% 2.5% 0.7% 0.2% 1 10.6% 11.5% 4.7% 1.4% 0.4% 2 11.1% 9.9% 4.4% 1.3% 0.4% 3 7.0% 6.2% 2.8% 0.8% 0.2% 4+ 5.1% 4.5% 2.0% 0.6% 0.2%

Rows: Sabah FA goals. Columns: Borussia Dortmund goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Sabah FA vs Borussia Dortmund goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%
Over 1.5 78%
Over 2.5 53%
Over 3.5 30%
Both teams to score
51%
No goals (0–0)
7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Sabah FA vs Borussia Dortmund

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Sabah FA22%4.45
Draw18%5.57
Borussia Dortmund60%1.68
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.553%1.90
Under 2.547%2.11
Both teams to scoreYes51%1.95
No49%2.05
Double chance1X (Sabah FA or draw)40%2.48
12 (either side)82%1.22
X2 (draw or Borussia Dortmund)78%1.29
Handicap -1Borussia Dortmund win by 2+6%18.03
Push (exactly one goal)11%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Sabah FA and Borussia Dortmund recent form

Sabah FA 4W 1D 1L
Borussia Dortmund 3W 2D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Sabah FA at home

Record (W-D-L)
5-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
2.80
Goals against / match
0.40
Clean sheets
4 of 5
  • They have won 7 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
  • They average 2.8 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 10 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.

Borussia Dortmund away

Record (W-D-L)
0-0-1
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.00
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
0 of 1

League matches this season before kick-off: Sabah FA at home only, Borussia Dortmund away only.

Injuries & availability

Borussia Dortmund absences

  • E. Can knee injury
  • G. Konstantelias knee injury
  • J. Lerma muscle injury
  • K. Karetsas ankle injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Sabah FA lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 92 S. Pokatilov
  2. 27 T. Puchacz
  3. 4 A. McCarthy
  4. 3 S. Solvet
  5. 80 A. Zedadka
  6. 13 I. Lepinjica
  7. 7 U. Rahmonaliyev
  8. 21 V. Simić
  9. 37 Du Queiroz
  10. 11 K. Parris
  11. 20 J. Mickels

Bench: A. Ramazanov, R. Daşdəmirov, A. Xaybulayev, C. Nwachukwu, A. Isaev, T. Mütəllimov, Erivaldo Almeida, X. Severina, Rodrigo Fernandes, R. Mirzəmmədov, P. Mbina

Borussia Dortmund lineup · 3-4-2-1

  1. 1 G. Kobel
  2. 5 R. Bensebaïni
  3. 3 W. Anton
  4. 4 N. Schlotterbeck
  5. 24 D. Svensson
  6. 17 C. Chukwuemeka
  7. 25 J. Veerman
  8. 26 J. Ryerson
  9. 8 F. Nmecha
  10. 21 Fábio Silva
  11. 9 S. Guirassy

Bench: J. Bellingham, M. Beier, E. Nwaneri, M. Sabitzer, Kouakou Joane Gadou, P. Drewes, A. Meyer, F. Mané, S. Inacio, M. Albert, E. de Pina Duarte dos Santos, L. Reggiani

Other League Stage - 3 fixtures

Before and after this match