Updated

UEFA Champions League · League Stage - 3

VfB Stuttgart vs Atletico Madrid

· MHP Arena, Stuttgart· Referee Serdar Gozubuyuk

Full time1 – 1

TipsterGrid prediction was Atletico Madrid to win

Ablended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 2

7% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
VfB StuttgartDrawAtletico Madrid

Why this pick: VfB Stuttgart vs Atletico Madrid

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (VfB Stuttgart 10, Atletico Madrid 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

VfB StuttgartAtletico Madrid
2.32 xG per 90 2.02
2.23 npxG per 90 1.83
10.4 PPDA 10.2
9.0 Deep completions per 90 11.2
1.34 xPTS per 90 1.86

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

VfB Stuttgart vs Atletico Madrid: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceVfB StuttgartDrawAtletico Madrid
Model42%23%34%
Market29%25%46%
Published32%24%43%
Edge+3%0%-3%
  • Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

VfB Stuttgart vs Atletico Madrid odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Atletico Madrid, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-15.

Opened 2.25Now 2.05 -0.19
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
VfB Stuttgart2.933.27+0.34
Draw3.733.84+0.12
Atletico Madrid2.252.05-0.19

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

VfB Stuttgart and Atletico Madrid expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.93VfB Stuttgart
1.73Atletico Madrid
Total expected goals
3.66
Attack rating (VfB Stuttgart / Atletico Madrid)
1.36 / 1.20
Defence rating (VfB Stuttgart / Atletico Madrid)
1.11 / 0.75

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

VfB Stuttgart vs Atletico Madrid score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.4% 3.6% 3.9% 2.2% 1.4% 1 4.1% 9.5% 7.4% 4.3% 2.7% 2 4.8% 8.3% 7.2% 4.1% 2.6% 3 3.1% 5.3% 4.6% 2.7% 1.7% 4+ 2.3% 4.0% 3.5% 2.0% 1.3%

Rows: VfB Stuttgart goals. Columns: Atletico Madrid goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

VfB Stuttgart vs Atletico Madrid goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%
Over 1.5 89%
Over 2.5 71%
Over 3.5 50%
Both teams to score
71%
No goals (0–0)
3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for VfB Stuttgart vs Atletico Madrid

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2VfB Stuttgart32%3.09
Draw24%4.10
Atletico Madrid43%2.31
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.571%1.41
Under 2.529%3.42
Both teams to scoreYes71%1.41
No29%3.47
Double chance1X (VfB Stuttgart or draw)57%1.76
12 (either side)76%1.32
X2 (draw or Atletico Madrid)68%1.48
Handicap -1Atletico Madrid win by 2+18%5.62
Push (exactly one goal)17%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

VfB Stuttgart and Atletico Madrid recent form

VfB Stuttgart 3W 0D 3L
Atletico Madrid 6W 0D 0L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

VfB Stuttgart at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
3.00
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
0 of 1

Atletico Madrid away

Record (W-D-L)
0-0-1
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
0 of 1

League matches this season before kick-off: VfB Stuttgart at home only, Atletico Madrid away only.

Injuries & availability

VfB Stuttgart absences

  • D. Zagadou muscle injury
  • J. Diehl muscle injury
  • L. Stergiou off the roster
  • S. Drljaca off the roster
  • T. Tomas muscle injury

Atletico Madrid absences

  • C. Romero muscle injury
  • Koke muscle injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

VfB Stuttgart lineup · 3-4-2-1

  1. 41 D. Seimen
  2. 7 M. Mittelstädt
  3. 3 R. Hendriks
  4. 24 J. Chabot
  5. 10 C. Führich
  6. 6 A. Stiller
  7. 21 G. Prömel
  8. 4 J. Vagnoman
  9. 11 B. El Khannouss
  10. 18 J. Leweling
  11. 26 D. Undav

Bench: F. Bredlow, A. Al Dakhil, E. Demirović, L. Jaquez, A. Karazor, D. Pejčinović, L. Assignon, N. Nartey, Finn Jeltsch, M. Funk, L. Sauer

Atletico Madrid lineup · 4-4-2

  1. 13 J. Oblak
  2. 22 Álex Grimaldo
  3. 17 D. Hancko
  4. 18 Marc Pubill
  5. 14 Marcos Llorente
  6. 10 Álex Baena
  7. 8 Pablo Barrios
  8. 23 M. Hjulmand
  9. 20 G. Simeone
  10. 19 J. Álvarez
  11. 15 J. David

Bench: J. Musso, O. Vargas, Rodrigo Mendoza, J. Cardoso, Lee Kang-In, A. Sørloth, A. Lookman, Arnau Ortiz, Robin Le Normand, J. Dominguez, Dani Martínez, J. Castillo

Other League Stage - 3 fixtures

Before and after this match