Why this pick: Liverpool vs Villarreal
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Liverpool 10, Villarreal 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Liverpool vs Villarreal: model vs market
| Source | Liverpool | Draw | Villarreal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 48% | 22% | 30% |
| Market | 65% | 20% | 15% |
| Published | 61% | 21% | 19% |
| Edge | -4% | 0% | +4% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.19 vs 1.71.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Liverpool vs Villarreal odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Liverpool, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-15.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool | 1.46 | 1.48 | +0.01 |
| Draw | 4.60 | 4.73 | +0.13 |
| Villarreal | 6.10 | 6.22 | +0.12 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Liverpool and Villarreal expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.90
- Attack rating (Liverpool / Villarreal)
- 1.26 / 1.37
- Defence rating (Liverpool / Villarreal)
- 0.96 / 0.92
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Liverpool vs Villarreal score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Liverpool goals. Columns: Villarreal goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Liverpool vs Villarreal goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 74%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Liverpool vs Villarreal
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Liverpool | 61% | 1.65 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.86 | |
| Villarreal | 19% | 5.30 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 75% | 1.34 |
| Under 2.5 | 25% | 3.96 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 74% | 1.36 |
| No | 26% | 3.78 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Liverpool or draw) | 81% | 1.23 |
| 12 (either side) | 79% | 1.26 | |
| X2 (draw or Villarreal) | 39% | 2.53 | |
| Handicap -1 | Liverpool win by 2+ | 29% | 3.43 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Liverpool and Villarreal recent form
Liverpool
4W 1D 1L
Villarreal
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Liverpool at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
Villarreal away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 3.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
League matches this season before kick-off: Liverpool at home only, Villarreal away only.
Injuries & availability
Liverpool absences
-
C. Bradley
knee injury
- D. Szoboszlai muscle injury
-
F. Chiesa
off the roster
-
G. Leoni
knee injury
-
H. Ekitike
achilles tendon injury
- J. Frimpong muscle injury
-
W. Endo
off the roster
Villarreal absences
-
N. Pepe
eye injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Expected lineups
Liverpool lineup · 4-3-3
- 1 Alisson Becker
- 21 K. Tsimikas
- 4 V. van Dijk
- 5 J. Jacquet
- 33 R. Araújo
- 10 A. Mac Allister
- 42 T. Nyoni
- 38 R. Gravenberch
- 18 C. Gakpo
- 67 L. Koumas
- 73 R. Ngumoha
Bench: J. Gomez, M. Kerkez, F. Wirtz, A. Isak, G. Mamardashvili, F. Woodman, B. Barcola, L. Chambers, J. McConnell, J. Danns, M. Laffey
Villarreal lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 25 P. Gulácsi
- 23 Sergi Cardona
- 12 Renato Veiga
- 6 Pau Navarro
- 15 S. Mouriño
- 18 P. Gueye
- 24 N. Saliba
- 10 Alberto Moleiro
- 14 Santi Comesaña
- 17 T. Buchanan
- 9 G. Mikautadze
Bench: Luíz Júnior, Logan Costa, A. Freeman, A. Diatta, Gerard Moreno, J. Foyth, Ilias Akhomach, C. Macia, T. Oluwaseyi, Ayoze Pérez, N. El Jmili
Liverpool vs Villarreal head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Liverpool 3 · draws 0 · Villarreal 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-05-03 | Villarreal | 2-3 | Liverpool | UEFA Champions League |
| 2022-04-27 | Liverpool | 2-0 | Villarreal | UEFA Champions League |
| 2016-05-05 | Liverpool | 3-0 | Villarreal | UEFA Europa League |
| 2016-04-28 | Villarreal | 1-0 | Liverpool | UEFA Europa League |
Other League Stage - 3 fixtures
- Fenerbahçe v Slavia Praha — match page 2026-10-20
- Sabah FA vs Borussia Dortmund — team news & stats 2026-10-20
- Manchester City v AEK Athens FC — match page 2026-10-20
- Paris Saint Germain vs Barcelona — team news & stats 2026-10-20
- VfB Stuttgart vs Atletico Madrid 2026-10-20
- FC Porto v PSV Eindhoven — match page 2026-10-20
- Napoli vs Bodo/Glimt — team news & stats 2026-10-20
- Roma vs Slovan Bratislava 2026-10-20
Before and after this match
- Liverpool, previous: Brentford vs Liverpool prediction
- Liverpool, next: Liverpool – Brighton, 2026-10-25
- Villarreal, previous: Villarreal v Elche analysis
- Villarreal, next: Valencia vs Villarreal prediction