Updated

UEFA Champions League · League Stage - 3

Paris Saint Germain vs Barcelona

· Parc des Princes, Paris· Referee Michael Oliver

Full time4 – 2

TipsterGrid prediction was Barcelona to win

Ablended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 2

6% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Paris Saint GermainDrawBarcelona

Why this pick: Paris Saint Germain vs Barcelona

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Paris Saint Germain 10, Barcelona 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

Paris Saint GermainBarcelona
2.36 xG per 90 3.91
2.08 npxG per 90 3.53
11.3 PPDA 6.4
12.0 Deep completions per 90 14.0
1.80 xPTS per 90 2.63

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Paris Saint Germain vs Barcelona: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceParis Saint GermainDrawBarcelona
Model36%20%44%
Market39%22%40%
Published38%21%41%
Edge-1%0%+1%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Paris Saint Germain vs Barcelona odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Barcelona, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-15.

Opened 2.48Now 2.42 -0.06
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Paris Saint Germain2.402.47+0.08
Draw4.204.40+0.20
Barcelona2.482.42-0.06

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Paris Saint Germain and Barcelona expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.21Paris Saint Germain
2.45Barcelona
Total expected goals
4.65
Attack rating (Paris Saint Germain / Barcelona)
1.57 / 1.94
Defence rating (Paris Saint Germain / Barcelona)
0.97 / 0.74

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Paris Saint Germain vs Barcelona score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 1.5% 1.8% 2.9% 2.3% 2.5% 1 1.6% 5.7% 6.3% 5.1% 5.6% 2 2.3% 5.7% 6.9% 5.7% 6.2% 3 1.7% 4.2% 5.1% 4.2% 4.6% 4+ 1.6% 3.9% 4.7% 3.8% 4.2%

Rows: Paris Saint Germain goals. Columns: Barcelona goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Paris Saint Germain vs Barcelona goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 99%
Over 1.5 95%
Over 2.5 84%
Over 3.5 68%
Both teams to score
82%
No goals (0–0)
1%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Paris Saint Germain vs Barcelona

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Paris Saint Germain38%2.63
Draw21%4.69
Barcelona41%2.46
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.584%1.19
Under 2.516%6.37
Both teams to scoreYes82%1.22
No18%5.50
Double chance1X (Paris Saint Germain or draw)59%1.69
12 (either side)79%1.27
X2 (draw or Barcelona)62%1.61
Handicap -1Barcelona win by 2+27%3.68
Push (exactly one goal)17%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Paris Saint Germain and Barcelona recent form

Paris Saint Germain 6W 0D 0L
Barcelona 6W 0D 0L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Paris Saint Germain at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
6.00
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
0 of 1

Barcelona away

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
4.00
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
0 of 1

League matches this season before kick-off: Paris Saint Germain at home only, Barcelona away only.

Injuries & availability

Paris Saint Germain absences

  • A. Longoni injury
  • N. Mendes muscle injury

Barcelona absences

  • A. Christensen muscle injury
  • E. Garcia muscle injury
  • J. Kounde ankle injury
  • R. Bardghji knee injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Paris Saint Germain lineup · 4-3-3

  1. 39 M. Safonov
  2. 21 L. Hernández
  3. 51 W. Pacho
  4. 5 Marquinhos
  5. 2 A. Hakimi
  6. 8 Fabián Ruiz
  7. 17 Vitinha
  8. 87 João Neves
  9. 7 K. Kvaratskhelia
  10. 10 O. Dembélé
  11. 14 D. Doué

Bench: Beraldo, I. Zabarnyi, Ferran Torres, M. Akliouche, L. Digne, M. Godts, Senny Mayulu, Pedro Fernández, L. Chevalier, W. Zaïre-Emery, Quentin Ndjantou Mbitcha

Barcelona lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 Joan García
  2. 12 X. Espart
  3. 18 Gerard Martín
  4. 5 Pau Cubarsí Paredes
  5. 2 João Cancelo
  6. 8 Pedri
  7. 22 Marc Bernal
  8. 17 A. Gordon
  9. 20 Dani Olmo
  10. 10 Lamine Yamal
  11. 11 Raphinha

Bench: Alejandro Balde, B. Farinas, Gavi, Fermín, Gabriel Jesus, W. Szczęsny, K. Adeyemi, Rodri, F. de Jong, D. Livaković, H. Abdelkarim, A. Campos

Paris Saint Germain vs Barcelona head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Paris Saint Germain 4 · draws 1 · Barcelona 5.

Paris Saint GermainDrawsBarcelona
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2025-10-01Barcelona1-2Paris Saint GermainUEFA Champions League
2024-04-16Barcelona1-4Paris Saint GermainUEFA Champions League
2024-04-10Paris Saint Germain2-3BarcelonaUEFA Champions League
2021-03-10Paris Saint Germain1-1BarcelonaUEFA Champions League
2021-02-16Barcelona1-4Paris Saint GermainUEFA Champions League
2017-03-08Barcelona6-1Paris Saint GermainUEFA Champions League
2017-02-14Paris Saint Germain4-0BarcelonaUEFA Champions League
2015-04-21Barcelona2-0Paris Saint GermainUEFA Champions League
2015-04-15Paris Saint Germain1-3BarcelonaUEFA Champions League
2014-12-10Barcelona3-1Paris Saint GermainUEFA Champions League

Other League Stage - 3 fixtures

Before and after this match