Updated

UEFA Champions League · League Stage - 3

Roma vs Slovan Bratislava

· Stadio Olimpico, Rome· Referee Sandro Schärer

Full time4 – 0

TipsterGrid prediction was Roma to win

Bblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
RomaDrawSlovan Bratislava

Roma vs Slovan Bratislava: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceRomaDrawSlovan Bratislava
Model67%18%15%
Market86%10%4%
Published81%12%7%
Edge-5%+2%+3%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.64 vs 1.21.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Roma vs Slovan Bratislava odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Roma, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-15.

Opened 1.12Now 1.12 +0.00
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Roma1.121.12+0.00
Draw9.459.54+0.10
Slovan Bratislava18.5022.00+3.50

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Roma and Slovan Bratislava expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.64Roma
1.21Slovan Bratislava
Total expected goals
3.85
Attack rating (Roma / Slovan Bratislava)
1.36 / 1.05
Defence rating (Roma / Slovan Bratislava)
0.88 / 1.03

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Roma vs Slovan Bratislava score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 2.8% 1.9% 1.5% 0.6% 0.2% 1 4.9% 7.5% 4.1% 1.7% 0.6% 2 7.4% 9.0% 5.4% 2.2% 0.9% 3 6.5% 7.9% 4.8% 1.9% 0.8% 4+ 8.2% 9.9% 6.0% 2.4% 0.9%

Rows: Roma goals. Columns: Slovan Bratislava goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Roma vs Slovan Bratislava goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%
Over 1.5 90%
Over 2.5 74%
Over 3.5 54%
Both teams to score
66%
No goals (0–0)
3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Roma vs Slovan Bratislava

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Roma81%1.23
Draw12%8.31
Slovan Bratislava7%14.48
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.574%1.35
Under 2.526%3.85
Both teams to scoreYes66%1.52
No34%2.92
Double chance1X (Roma or draw)93%1.07
12 (either side)88%1.14
X2 (draw or Slovan Bratislava)19%5.28
Handicap -1Roma win by 2+47%2.12
Push (exactly one goal)20%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Roma and Slovan Bratislava recent form

Roma 2W 3D 1L
Slovan Bratislava 2W 2D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Roma at home

Record (W-D-L)
0-0-1
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
3.00
Goals against / match
4.00
Clean sheets
0 of 1

Slovan Bratislava away

Record (W-D-L)
3-0-1
Win rate
75%
Goals for / match
1.75
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
1 of 4
  • They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.

League matches this season before kick-off: Roma at home only, Slovan Bratislava away only.

Injuries & availability

Roma absences

  • B. Cristante knee injury
  • M. Bah knee injury
  • M. Kone muscle injury
  • M. Svilar toe injury
  • P. Dybala calf injury

Slovan Bratislava absences

  • A. Griger off the roster
  • A. Sporar illness
  • M. Kianga off the roster
  • M. Kukharevych injury
  • R. Cerepkai back injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Roma lineup · 3-4-2-1

  1. 95 P. Gollini
  2. 22 Hermoso
  3. 26 L. Balerdi
  4. 87 D. Ghilardi
  5. 43 Wesley
  6. 61 N. Pisilli
  7. 15 M. de Roon
  8. 20 N. Molina
  9. 86 Rodrigo Mora
  10. 7 L. Pellegrini
  11. 14 D. Malen

Bench: D. Rensch, K. Koulierakis, B. Cristante, E. Ndicka, S. Castro, M. Soulé, G. Mancini, D. Vásquez, G. De Marzi, E. Lulli

Slovan Bratislava lineup · 4-1-4-1

  1. 71 D. Takáč
  2. 57 Sandro Cruz
  3. 15 S. Marković
  4. 12 K. Bajrič
  5. 28 C. Blackman
  6. 3 P. Pokorný
  7. 21 Suleiman Camara
  8. 8 A. Gajdoš
  9. 5 R. Ibrahim
  10. 11 T. Barseghyan
  11. 10 N. Marcelli

Bench: A. Popović, S. Kozlovský, K. Wimmer, L. Hofstadter, A. Yirajang, A. Mustafić, R. Tománek, A. Maroš, S. Camara, Cristian Jesús Martínez, D. Ignatenko, D. Matsuoka

Other League Stage - 3 fixtures

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