Updated

Eredivisie · Matchday 11

Excelsior vs Twente

· Van Donge & De Roo Stadion, Rotterdam· Referee Erwin Blank

Full time0 – 9

TipsterGrid prediction was Twente to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 2

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
ExcelsiorDrawTwente

Excelsior vs Twente: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceExcelsiorDrawTwente
Model25%25%50%
Market17%20%63%
Published19%21%60%
Edge+2%+1%-3%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.88 vs 1.28.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Excelsior vs Twente odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Twente, 25 snapshots since 2026-10-20.

Opened 1.54Now 1.50 -0.04
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Excelsior5.135.73+0.60
Draw4.474.67+0.19
Twente1.541.50-0.04

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Excelsior and Twente expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.28Excelsior
1.88Twente
Total expected goals
3.16
Attack rating (Excelsior / Twente)
1.04 / 1.19
Defence rating (Excelsior / Twente)
1.05 / 0.68

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Excelsior vs Twente score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.2% 6.9% 7.5% 4.7% 3.4% 1 4.4% 11.2% 9.6% 6.0% 4.3% 2 3.5% 6.5% 6.1% 3.9% 2.8% 3 1.5% 2.8% 2.6% 1.6% 1.2% 4+ 0.6% 1.2% 1.1% 0.7% 0.5%

Rows: Excelsior goals. Columns: Twente goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Excelsior vs Twente goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%
Over 1.5 83%
Over 2.5 61%
Over 3.5 39%
Both teams to score
62%
No goals (0–0)
5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Excelsior vs Twente

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Excelsior19%5.36
Draw21%4.67
Twente60%1.67
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.561%1.63
Under 2.539%2.58
Both teams to scoreYes62%1.61
No38%2.65
Double chance1X (Excelsior or draw)40%2.50
12 (either side)79%1.27
X2 (draw or Twente)81%1.23
Handicap -1Twente win by 2+29%3.43
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Excelsior and Twente recent form

Excelsior 1W 1D 4L
Twente 4W 1D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Excelsior at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-3
Win rate
25%
Goals for / match
1.25
Goals against / match
2.50
Clean sheets
0 of 4
  • They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
  • 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Twente away

Record (W-D-L)
2-2-1
Win rate
40%
Goals for / match
1.80
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
1 of 5
  • They have won 6 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Excelsior at home only, Twente away only.

Injuries & availability

Twente absences

  • B. van Rooij injury
  • D. Weidmann suspended
  • F. Thorvaldsen inactive
  • L. Unnerstall inactive
  • M. Bruns inactive
  • S. Lemkin muscle injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Excelsior lineup · 4-3-3

  1. 1 S. van Gassel
  2. 12 K. Bos
  3. 14 J. Plug
  4. 4 C. Widell
  5. 3 R. Meissen
  6. 20 L. Hartjes
  7. 10 N. Naujoks
  8. 6 D. van Vianen
  9. 8 I. Yegoian
  10. 28 N. Groen
  11. 7 A. Sliti

Bench: Eric Emanuel da Silva Moreira, Mario Domínguez, A. Jahanbakhsh, S. Janssen, Celton Biai, V. Sulzbacher, D. Garden, I. Silva Timas, Y. Finey, Giulliano Cairo, Á. Þorsteinsson

Twente lineup · 4-3-3

  1. 16 J. Drommel
  2. 29 A. Adelgaard
  3. 4 R. Nijstad
  4. 3 R. Pröpper
  5. 28 B. van Rooij
  6. 20 T. van den Belt
  7. 10 Y. Taha
  8. 6 R. Zerrouki
  9. 27 S. Ørjasæter
  10. 9 W. Weghorst
  11. 11 D. Rots

Bench: M. Rosiak, M. Pjaca, K. Hlynsson, Jordy Bawuah, R. Pasveer, K. Kurowski, Lucas Vennegoor of Hesselink, Yannick Gerritsen, J. Meilink

Excelsior vs Twente head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Excelsior 3 · draws 4 · Twente 3.

ExcelsiorDrawsTwente
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-01-24Twente0-0ExcelsiorEredivisie
2025-08-30Excelsior1-0TwenteEredivisie
2024-02-10Excelsior0-3TwenteEredivisie
2023-12-08Twente4-2ExcelsiorEredivisie
2023-04-01Excelsior0-0TwenteEredivisie
2022-08-31Twente4-0ExcelsiorEredivisie
2017-12-23Excelsior0-0TwenteEredivisie
2017-10-27Twente1-3ExcelsiorEredivisie
2017-02-12Excelsior1-1TwenteEredivisie
2016-08-06Twente1-2ExcelsiorEredivisie

Other Matchday 11 fixtures

Before and after this match