Updated

UEFA Europa Conference League · League Stage - 2

Pafos vs Riga

· Alphamega Stadium, Kolossi· Referee M. Barbu

Full time1 – 1

TipsterGrid prediction was Pafos to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 0

11% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
PafosDrawRiga

Pafos vs Riga: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourcePafosDrawRiga
Model36%31%33%
Market59%23%18%
Published53%25%22%
Edge-6%+2%+4%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Pafos vs Riga odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Pafos, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-17.

Opened 1.55Now 1.58 +0.03
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Pafos1.551.58+0.03
Draw4.184.03-0.15
Riga5.865.30-0.56

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Pafos and Riga expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.16Pafos
1.12Riga
Total expected goals
2.29
Attack rating (Pafos / Riga)
0.96 / 1.13
Defence rating (Pafos / Riga)
0.84 / 0.73

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Pafos vs Riga score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 11.5% 10.1% 6.4% 2.4% 0.9% 1 10.5% 14.6% 7.5% 2.8% 1.0% 2 6.9% 7.7% 4.3% 1.6% 0.6% 3 2.7% 3.0% 1.7% 0.6% 0.2% 4+ 1.0% 1.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1%

Rows: Pafos goals. Columns: Riga goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Pafos vs Riga goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 89%
Over 1.5 68%
Over 2.5 40%
Over 3.5 20%
Both teams to score
48%
No goals (0–0)
11%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Pafos vs Riga

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Pafos53%1.88
Draw25%3.96
Riga22%4.63
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.540%2.50
Under 2.560%1.67
Both teams to scoreYes48%2.10
No52%1.91
Double chance1X (Pafos or draw)78%1.28
12 (either side)75%1.34
X2 (draw or Riga)47%2.14
Handicap -1Pafos win by 2+15%6.54
Push (exactly one goal)20%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Pafos and Riga recent form

Pafos 2W 2D 2L
Riga 4W 2D 0L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Pafos at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
4.00
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
0 of 1

Riga away

Record (W-D-L)
1-2-0
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
1.33
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
1 of 3
  • They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
  • They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Pafos at home only, Riga away only.

Expected lineups

Pafos lineup · 4-3-3

  1. 99 Radosław Majecki
  2. 14 Nikolas Ioannou
  3. 4 David Luiz
  4. 3 Samy Mmaee
  5. 7 Bruno
  6. 6 Guga
  7. 50 Alexandre Brito
  8. 77 João Correia
  9. 20 Biel
  10. 33 Anderson Silva
  11. 30 Vlad Dragomir

Bench: Domingos Quina, Ken Sema, Lelê, Ivan Šunjić, Christos Evzonas, Michalis Papastylianou, Kosmas Ioannou, Petros Petrou

Riga lineup · 4-3-1-2

  1. 12 Kenan Pirić
  2. 13 Raivis Jurkovskis
  3. 5 Karl Gameni Wassom
  4. 21 Baba Musah
  5. 23 Maksims Tonisevs
  6. 7 Raki Aouani
  7. 40 Ahmed Ankrah
  8. 22 Meïssa Diop
  9. 8 Iago Siqueira Augusto
  10. 18 Salah Oulad M'Hand
  11. 10 Reginaldo Ramires

Bench: Coli Saco, Caio Ferreira, Samuel Pedro, Muhammed Badamosi, Abdulrahman Taiwo, Antonijs Černomordijs, Marcis Kazainis, Frenks Orols

Other League Stage - 2 fixtures

Before and after this match