Updated

Eredivisie · Matchday 12

Twente vs Ajax

· De Grolsch Veste, Enschede

TipsterGrid prediction Twente to win

Cblended with market odds

Predicted score 2 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
TwenteDrawAjax
  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.34 vs 1.34.
  • RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Best market odds
Twente2.31 Draw3.95 Ajax2.90

Price as of

Expected return at 2.31: +6.3% per unit staked

18+ · T&Cs apply · best price across 10 bookmakers, each at its own last update; the highlighted price is our pick.

Twente vs Ajax preview

In the Eredivisie fixture between Twente and Ajax, the model gives Twente a 43% chance of winning compared to Ajax's 34%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 9% probability. The expected goals suggest Twente will score 2.35 while Ajax is projected to net 1.34. This indicates a solid offensive performance from Twente.

However, the recent form shows Ajax has won 3 of their last 5 matches, while Twente has a slightly less consistent record with 3 wins and 1 draw in their last 5. This discrepancy in form could impact the outcome, despite the model favoring Twente. Both teams to score has a 67% likelihood, reflecting potential for an exciting match.

Twente vs Ajax: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceTwenteDrawAjax
Model59%21%20%
Market42%25%34%
Published46%24%30%
Edge+4%-1%-3%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.34 vs 1.34.
  • The market prices Twente below our published probability: +4.3 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.31, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +6.3% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).

Twente vs Ajax odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Twente, 20 snapshots since 2026-10-26.

Opened 2.50Now 2.25 -0.25
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Twente2.502.25-0.25
Draw3.913.81-0.10
Ajax2.382.79+0.41

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Twente and Ajax expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.34Twente
1.34Ajax
Total expected goals
3.68
Attack rating (Twente / Ajax)
1.60 / 1.40
Defence rating (Twente / Ajax)
0.62 / 0.81

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Twente vs Ajax score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.3% 2.6% 2.3% 1.0% 0.5% 1 5.1% 8.7% 5.3% 2.4% 1.1% 2 6.9% 9.3% 6.2% 2.8% 1.2% 3 5.4% 7.2% 4.8% 2.2% 1.0% 4+ 5.5% 7.3% 4.9% 2.2% 1.0%

Rows: Twente goals. Columns: Ajax goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Twente vs Ajax goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%
Over 1.5 89%
Over 2.5 71%
Over 3.5 50%
Both teams to score
67%
No goals (0–0)
3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Twente vs Ajax

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Twente46%2.17
Draw24%4.22
Ajax30%3.30
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.571%1.41
Under 2.529%3.46
Both teams to scoreYes67%1.48
No33%3.07
Double chance1X (Twente or draw)70%1.43
12 (either side)76%1.31
X2 (draw or Ajax)54%1.85
Handicap -1Twente win by 2+38%2.61
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Twente and Ajax recent form

Twente 4W 1D 1L
Ajax 4W 1D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Twente at home

Record (W-D-L)
4-0-1
Win rate
80%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
2 of 5
  • They have won 6 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

Ajax away

Record (W-D-L)
5-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
3.60
Goals against / match
0.80
Clean sheets
2 of 5
  • They have won 6 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.9 goals per match.
  • They average 3.6 goals per game on the road against 2.2 at home.
  • 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Twente at home only, Ajax away only.

Twente vs Ajax head-to-head

Last 2 meetings: Twente 1 · draws 0 · Ajax 1.

TwenteDrawsAjax
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-04-04Ajax1-2TwenteEredivisie
2025-10-26Twente2-3AjaxEredivisie

Other Matchday 12 fixtures

Before and after this match

Prediction snapshot Twente to win Predicted score 2 – 1 C Bet on Twente
Our pick: Twente to win 18+ Bet Now