Celta Vigo vs Union St. Gilloise Prediction 05.11.26: Score & BTTS Tips

Celta Vigo vs Union St. Gilloise preview

Celta Vigo faces Union St. Gilloise with a 36% chance of winning for the hosts compared to 39% for the visitors. The most likely scoreline is 0-2, occurring at a rate of 12%. Celta Vigo's expected goals stand at 0.84, while Union St. Gilloise has a significantly higher figure of 1.97, indicating a potential struggle for the home side.

Celta Vigo's recent form shows a mix of results with L-D-W-W-L-D, while Union St. Gilloise has been more consistent with W-W-W-W-D-D. This discrepancy in form could impact the outcome, but the confidence grade remains at B, suggesting some uncertainty in the prediction.

Celta Vigo vs Union St. Gilloise: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Celta Vigo	Draw	Union St. Gilloise
Model	14%	23%	63%
Market	43%	26%	31%
Published	35%	25%	39%
Edge	-7%	-1%	+8%

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.97 vs 0.84.
Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
The market prices Union St. Gilloise below our published probability: +7.9 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 3.20, recorded 2026-11-04 — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +25.3% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).

Celta Vigo vs Union St. Gilloise odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Union St. Gilloise, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-30.

Opened 3.32Now 3.00 -0.32

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Celta Vigo	2.03	2.20	+0.17
Draw	3.73	3.58	-0.15
Union St. Gilloise	3.32	3.00	-0.32

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Celta Vigo and Union St. Gilloise expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.84Celta Vigo

1.97Union St. Gilloise

Total expected goals: 2.81
Attack rating (Celta Vigo / Union St. Gilloise): 0.83 / 1.81
Defence rating (Celta Vigo / Union St. Gilloise): 0.91 / 0.65

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Celta Vigo vs Union St. Gilloise score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 7.0% 10.9% 11.7% 7.7% 6.0% 1 4.0% 10.9% 9.8% 6.5% 5.0% 2 2.1% 4.2% 4.1% 2.7% 2.1% 3 0.6% 1.2% 1.1% 0.8% 0.6% 4+ 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1%

Rows: Celta Vigo goals. Columns: Union St. Gilloise goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Celta Vigo vs Union St. Gilloise goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%

Over 1.5 78%

Over 2.5 53%

Over 3.5 31%

Both teams to score: 50%
No goals (0–0): 7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Celta Vigo vs Union St. Gilloise

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Celta Vigo	35%	2.82
	Draw	25%	3.94
	Union St. Gilloise	39%	2.55
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	53%	1.88
	Under 2.5	47%	2.14
Both teams to score	Yes	50%	2.01
	No	50%	1.99
Double chance	1X (Celta Vigo or draw)	61%	1.64
	12 (either side)	75%	1.34
	X2 (draw or Union St. Gilloise)	65%	1.55
Handicap -1	Union St. Gilloise win by 2+	39%	2.55
	Push (exactly one goal)	24%	—