Sunderland vs Dinamo Zagreb Prediction 05.11.26: Score & BTTS Tips

Sunderland vs Dinamo Zagreb preview

In the UEFA Europa League fixture between Sunderland and Dinamo Zagreb, Sunderland has a 60% probability of winning, while Dinamo Zagreb stands at 19%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1, with a 9% chance. Sunderland's expected goals are 1.89, compared to Dinamo Zagreb's 1.62, indicating a slight edge for the home side.

However, Sunderland's recent form shows inconsistency with a record of L-W-D-D-L-W, while Dinamo Zagreb has a mixed record of L-W-L-W-W-L. This variance in form could impact the match outcome, despite Sunderland's stronger statistical indicators. The model also suggests a 68% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance for both teams to score, adding further intrigue to the matchup.

Sunderland vs Dinamo Zagreb: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Sunderland	Draw	Dinamo Zagreb
Model	43%	24%	33%
Market	64%	20%	15%
Published	59%	21%	20%
Edge	-5%	+1%	+4%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.52, recorded 2026-11-04 — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -10.3% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).

Sunderland vs Dinamo Zagreb odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Sunderland, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-30.

Opened 1.44Now 1.46 +0.02

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Sunderland	1.44	1.46	+0.02
Draw	4.67	4.59	-0.08
Dinamo Zagreb	6.50	6.10	-0.40

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Sunderland and Dinamo Zagreb expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.89Sunderland

1.62Dinamo Zagreb

Total expected goals: 3.51
Attack rating (Sunderland / Dinamo Zagreb): 1.12 / 1.24
Defence rating (Sunderland / Dinamo Zagreb): 1.09 / 1.09

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Sunderland vs Dinamo Zagreb score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.9% 3.9% 3.9% 2.1% 1.2% 1 4.7% 10.1% 7.4% 4.0% 2.3% 2 5.3% 8.6% 7.0% 3.8% 2.2% 3 3.4% 5.4% 4.4% 2.4% 1.4% 4+ 2.4% 3.9% 3.2% 1.7% 1.0%

Rows: Sunderland goals. Columns: Dinamo Zagreb goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Sunderland vs Dinamo Zagreb goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%

Over 1.5 87%

Over 2.5 68%

Over 3.5 46%

Both teams to score: 69%
No goals (0–0): 4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Sunderland vs Dinamo Zagreb

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Sunderland	59%	1.69
	Draw	21%	4.70
	Dinamo Zagreb	20%	5.08
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	68%	1.47
	Under 2.5	32%	3.13
Both teams to score	Yes	69%	1.45
	No	31%	3.22
Double chance	1X (Sunderland or draw)	80%	1.25
	12 (either side)	79%	1.27
	X2 (draw or Dinamo Zagreb)	41%	2.44
Handicap -1	Sunderland win by 2+	24%	4.10
	Push (exactly one goal)	19%	—