AZ Alkmaar vs Juventus Prediction 05.11.26: Score & BTTS Tips

AZ Alkmaar vs Juventus preview

In the UEFA Europa League fixture between AZ Alkmaar and Juventus, the probabilities indicate a 28% chance for AZ Alkmaar to win, a 27% chance for a draw, and a 45% chance for Juventus to secure victory. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with a 9% probability according to our model.

Juventus has a slight edge in expected goals at 1.35 compared to AZ Alkmaar's 1.21. However, both teams have shown inconsistency in recent form, with AZ Alkmaar recording two losses in their last three matches, while Juventus has a mixed record with two wins and a draw in their last three. This inconsistency could impact the match outcome despite the statistical favoring of Juventus.

AZ Alkmaar vs Juventus: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	AZ Alkmaar	Draw	Juventus
Model	29%	29%	41%
Market	27%	26%	47%
Published	27%	27%	46%
Edge	+1%	+1%	-2%

Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.04, recorded 2026-11-04 — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -6.9% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).

AZ Alkmaar vs Juventus odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Juventus, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-30.

Opened 2.00Now 2.00 +0.00

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
AZ Alkmaar	3.55	3.56	+0.02
Draw	3.58	3.60	+0.02
Juventus	2.00	2.00	+0.00

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

AZ Alkmaar and Juventus expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.12AZ Alkmaar

1.36Juventus

Total expected goals: 2.47
Attack rating (AZ Alkmaar / Juventus): 1.13 / 1.26
Defence rating (AZ Alkmaar / Juventus): 0.90 / 0.64

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

AZ Alkmaar vs Juventus score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 9.7% 10.2% 7.8% 3.5% 1.6% 1 8.1% 14.0% 8.7% 3.9% 1.8% 2 5.2% 7.1% 4.8% 2.2% 1.0% 3 2.0% 2.6% 1.8% 0.8% 0.4% 4+ 0.7% 0.9% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1%

Rows: AZ Alkmaar goals. Columns: Juventus goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

AZ Alkmaar vs Juventus goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 90%

Over 1.5 72%

Over 2.5 45%

Over 3.5 24%

Both teams to score: 51%
No goals (0–0): 10%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for AZ Alkmaar vs Juventus

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	AZ Alkmaar	27%	3.67
	Draw	27%	3.69
	Juventus	46%	2.19
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	45%	2.23
	Under 2.5	55%	1.82
Both teams to score	Yes	51%	1.95
	No	49%	2.05
Double chance	1X (AZ Alkmaar or draw)	54%	1.84
	12 (either side)	73%	1.37
	X2 (draw or Juventus)	73%	1.37
Handicap -1	Juventus win by 2+	20%	5.07
	Push (exactly one goal)	21%	—