Benfica vs Lech Poznan preview
In the UEFA Europa League fixture between Benfica and Lech Poznan, Benfica has a 77% probability of winning, while Lech Poznan sits at just 9%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1, occurring with an 8% probability. This suggests that Benfica is expected to dominate the match, reflected in their expected goals of 2.85 compared to Lech Poznan's 1.31.
However, the confidence grade for this match is C, indicating some uncertainty. While Benfica's recent form shows four wins in their last six matches, Lech Poznan has had mixed results with three wins and three losses. The likelihood of both teams scoring stands at 69%, which could challenge the expected outcome if Lech Poznan finds a way to capitalize on their chances.
Benfica vs Lech Poznan: model vs market
| Source | Benfica | Draw | Lech Poznan |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 69% | 18% | 14% |
| Market | 82% | 12% | 6% |
| Published | 79% | 13% | 8% |
| Edge | -3% | +1% | +2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.67 vs 1.17.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.17, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -7.9% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Benfica vs Lech Poznan odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Benfica, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-30.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Benfica | 1.18 | 1.15 | -0.03 |
| Draw | 6.50 | 8.00 | +1.50 |
| Lech Poznan | 13.00 | 15.50 | +2.50 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Benfica and Lech Poznan expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.84
- Attack rating (Benfica / Lech Poznan)
- 1.68 / 1.50
- Defence rating (Benfica / Lech Poznan)
- 0.65 / 1.03
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Benfica vs Lech Poznan score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Benfica goals. Columns: Lech Poznan goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Benfica vs Lech Poznan goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 65%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Benfica vs Lech Poznan
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Benfica | 79% | 1.27 |
| Draw | 13% | 7.55 | |
| Lech Poznan | 8% | 12.49 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74% | 1.35 |
| Under 2.5 | 26% | 3.82 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65% | 1.54 |
| No | 35% | 2.85 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Benfica or draw) | 92% | 1.09 |
| 12 (either side) | 87% | 1.15 | |
| X2 (draw or Lech Poznan) | 21% | 4.71 | |
| Handicap -1 | Benfica win by 2+ | 48% | 2.07 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Benfica and Lech Poznan recent form
Benfica
5W 0D 1L
Lech Poznan
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Benfica at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 4.50
- Goals against / match
- 0.75
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 7 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 3.2 goals per match.
- They average 4.5 goals per game at home against 2.2 on the road.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
- 47% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Lech Poznan away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 2.33
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Benfica at home only, Lech Poznan away only.
Injuries & availability
Benfica absences
-
D. Lukebakio
injury
- E. Barrenechea injury
- L. Barreiro inactive
Lech Poznan absences
-
A. Douglas
ankle injury
-
A. Gholizadeh
knee injury
- A. Sayyadmanesh groin injury
- J. Moutinho inactive
- M. Ishak inactive
- W. Monka injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Benfica vs Lech Poznan head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Benfica 2 · draws 0 · Lech Poznan 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-12-03 | Benfica | 4-0 | Lech Poznan | UEFA Europa League |
| 2020-10-22 | Lech Poznan | 2-4 | Benfica | UEFA Europa League |
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Before and after this match
- Benfica, previous: Benfica v Alverca analysis
- Benfica, next: Estrela vs Benfica: odds and pick
- Lech Poznan, previous: Lech Poznan vs Sunderland: odds and pick