Hapoel Beer Sheva vs OFI Prediction 05.11.26: Score & BTTS Tips

Hapoel Beer Sheva vs OFI preview

In the UEFA Europa League fixture between Hapoel Beer Sheva and OFI, the probabilities show Hapoel Beer Sheva at 46% to win, while OFI stands at 28%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 10% chance according to our model. Hapoel Beer Sheva has an expected goals figure of 1.91, significantly higher than OFI's 1.27, indicating they may create more scoring opportunities.

However, Hapoel Beer Sheva's recent form shows variability with a record of W-L-W-L-W-W, while OFI has struggled, recording L-W-L-L-L-L. This inconsistency in Hapoel Beer Sheva's performance could impact the outcome, making it a potential factor against the predicted scoreline. Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals are each at 62%, suggesting a match with possible offensive action.

Hapoel Beer Sheva vs OFI: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Hapoel Beer Sheva	Draw	OFI
Model	55%	23%	22%
Market	46%	26%	28%
Published	48%	25%	27%
Edge	+2%	-1%	-2%

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.11 vs 1.29.
Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
The market prices Hapoel Beer Sheva below our published probability: +2.3 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.12, recorded 2026-11-04 — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +2.4% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).

Hapoel Beer Sheva vs OFI odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Hapoel Beer Sheva, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-30.

Opened 2.08Now 2.05 -0.04

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Hapoel Beer Sheva	2.08	2.05	-0.04
Draw	3.58	3.66	+0.08
OFI	3.30	3.34	+0.04

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Hapoel Beer Sheva and OFI expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.11Hapoel Beer Sheva

1.29OFI

Total expected goals: 3.40
Attack rating (Hapoel Beer Sheva / OFI): 1.45 / 0.92
Defence rating (Hapoel Beer Sheva / OFI): 1.17 / 0.94

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Hapoel Beer Sheva vs OFI score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.3% 3.4% 2.8% 1.2% 0.5% 1 6.1% 10.0% 5.9% 2.5% 1.1% 2 7.4% 9.6% 6.2% 2.7% 1.1% 3 5.2% 6.7% 4.3% 1.9% 0.8% 4+ 4.5% 5.8% 3.7% 1.6% 0.7%

Rows: Hapoel Beer Sheva goals. Columns: OFI goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Hapoel Beer Sheva vs OFI goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%

Over 1.5 86%

Over 2.5 66%

Over 3.5 44%

Both teams to score: 65%
No goals (0–0): 4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Hapoel Beer Sheva vs OFI

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Hapoel Beer Sheva	48%	2.07
	Draw	25%	4.00
	OFI	27%	3.75
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	66%	1.52
	Under 2.5	34%	2.94
Both teams to score	Yes	65%	1.55
	No	35%	2.82
Double chance	1X (Hapoel Beer Sheva or draw)	73%	1.36
	12 (either side)	75%	1.33
	X2 (draw or OFI)	52%	1.93
Handicap -1	Hapoel Beer Sheva win by 2+	34%	2.94
	Push (exactly one goal)	21%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Hapoel Beer Sheva and OFI recent form

Hapoel Beer Sheva 4W 0D 2L

OFI 2W 0D 4L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Hapoel Beer Sheva at home

Record (W-D-L): 0-1-0
Win rate: 0%
Goals for / match: 0.00
Goals against / match: 0.00
Clean sheets: 1 of 1

OFI away

Record (W-D-L): 1-0-1
Win rate: 50%
Goals for / match: 1.50
Goals against / match: 1.00
Clean sheets: 1 of 2

They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
They have kept 3 clean sheets in 5 matches.
Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Hapoel Beer Sheva at home only, OFI away only.