Torreense vs Ararat-Armenia preview
In the UEFA Europa League fixture between Torreense and Ararat-Armenia, Torreense holds a 50% probability to win, while Ararat-Armenia sits at 24%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0, occurring 11% of the time. This suggests a tight contest, with expected goals of 1.20 for Torreense and 1.08 for Ararat-Armenia.
However, the recent form could challenge this outcome. Torreense's last five matches show a mixed bag with 1 win, while Ararat-Armenia has 3 wins in the same span. The probability of both teams scoring is at 48%, indicating a potential for a more dynamic match than the scoreline suggests.
Torreense vs Ararat-Armenia: model vs market
| Source | Torreense | Draw | Ararat-Armenia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 31% | 31% | 39% |
| Market | 54% | 25% | 21% |
| Published | 48% | 27% | 25% |
| Edge | -6% | +1% | +4% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.81, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -13.2% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Torreense vs Ararat-Armenia odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Torreense, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-30.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Torreense | 1.75 | 1.75 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.73 | 3.75 | +0.02 |
| Ararat-Armenia | 4.45 | 4.47 | +0.02 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Torreense and Ararat-Armenia expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.32
- Attack rating (Torreense / Ararat-Armenia)
- 0.72 / 1.09
- Defence rating (Torreense / Ararat-Armenia)
- 0.95 / 0.96
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Torreense vs Ararat-Armenia score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Torreense goals. Columns: Ararat-Armenia goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Torreense vs Ararat-Armenia goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 48%
- No goals (0–0)
- 11%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Torreense vs Ararat-Armenia
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Torreense | 48% | 2.08 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.76 | |
| Ararat-Armenia | 25% | 3.93 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 41% | 2.45 |
| Under 2.5 | 59% | 1.69 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48% | 2.08 |
| No | 52% | 1.93 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Torreense or draw) | 75% | 1.34 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Ararat-Armenia) | 52% | 1.92 | |
| Handicap -1 | Torreense win by 2+ | 12% | 8.02 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Torreense and Ararat-Armenia recent form
Torreense
2W 1D 3L
Ararat-Armenia
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Torreense at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
Ararat-Armenia away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Torreense at home only, Ararat-Armenia away only.
Injuries & availability
Torreense absences
- A. Baradji injury
Ararat-Armenia absences
- P. Ayongo off the roster
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
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Before and after this match
- Torreense, previous: Ferencvarosi TC vs Torreense prediction
- Ararat-Armenia, previous: Ararat-Armenia – AZ Alkmaar, 2026-10-22