Antwerp vs Lommel United preview
In the upcoming match between Antwerp and Lommel United, the 1X2 probabilities show Antwerp at 46%, Lommel United at 29%, and a draw at 25%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1, with an 8% probability. Antwerp's expected goals stand at 1.39, while Lommel United has a higher figure at 1.60, indicating potential challenges for Antwerp's defense.
While Antwerp's recent form includes three losses in their last six matches (L-W-W-L-L-L), Lommel United has shown better consistency with three wins in the same period (W-D-L-W-W-D). The model suggests a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance for both teams to score, but the confidence grade is C, highlighting uncertainty in the outcome.
Antwerp vs Lommel United: model vs market
| Source | Antwerp | Draw | Lommel United |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 32% | 26% | 41% |
| Market | 50% | 25% | 25% |
| Published | 46% | 25% | 29% |
| Edge | -5% | 0% | +4% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.91, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -12.7% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Antwerp vs Lommel United odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Antwerp, 7 snapshots since 2026-11-02.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Antwerp | 1.83 | 1.85 | +0.02 |
| Draw | 3.84 | 3.79 | -0.05 |
| Lommel United | 3.74 | 3.70 | -0.04 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Antwerp and Lommel United expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.99
- Attack rating (Antwerp / Lommel United)
- 0.96 / 1.05
- Defence rating (Antwerp / Lommel United)
- 1.21 / 0.94
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Antwerp vs Lommel United score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Antwerp goals. Columns: Lommel United goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Antwerp vs Lommel United goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 61%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Antwerp vs Lommel United
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Antwerp | 46% | 2.19 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.99 | |
| Lommel United | 29% | 3.42 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58% | 1.74 |
| Under 2.5 | 42% | 2.36 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61% | 1.64 |
| No | 39% | 2.57 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Antwerp or draw) | 71% | 1.41 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Lommel United) | 54% | 1.84 | |
| Handicap -1 | Antwerp win by 2+ | 15% | 6.66 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Antwerp and Lommel United recent form
Antwerp
2W 0D 4L
Lommel United
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Antwerp at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-2
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.20
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Lommel United away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-1
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.40
- Goals against / match
- 1.80
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 9 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Antwerp at home only, Lommel United away only.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Standard Liege vs SK Beveren — team news & stats 2026-11-06
- KVC Westerlo vs Charleroi — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- OH Leuven v KV Mechelen — match page 2026-11-07
- RAAL La Louvière vs Cercle Brugge 2026-11-07
- Club Brugge KV vs Anderlecht 2026-11-08
- Gent v Kortrijk — match page 2026-11-08
- Union St. Gilloise vs Genk — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- St. Truiden vs Zulte Waregem 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Antwerp, previous: Cercle Brugge vs Antwerp prediction
- Lommel United, previous: Lommel United vs Gent prediction