Gent vs Kortrijk preview
In the Jupiler Pro League fixture between Gent and Kortrijk, Gent holds a 67% probability of winning, while Kortrijk sits at just 12%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-0, with a 13% chance. Gent's expected goals are significantly higher at 2.34 compared to Kortrijk's 0.68, indicating a strong offensive performance.
However, Gent's recent form shows a mix of results with two losses in their last five matches, which could affect their consistency. Kortrijk, on the other hand, has only one win in their last six games, but they managed a draw against Gent previously. This inconsistency in form for both teams could lead to unexpected outcomes despite the statistical edge for Gent.
Gent vs Kortrijk: model vs market
| Source | Gent | Draw | Kortrijk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 74% | 18% | 8% |
| Market | 65% | 21% | 13% |
| Published | 67% | 21% | 12% |
| Edge | +2% | -1% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.34 vs 0.68.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Gent below our published probability: +2.1 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.47, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -0.8% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Gent vs Kortrijk odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Gent, 7 snapshots since 2026-11-02.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gent | 1.41 | 1.42 | +0.01 |
| Draw | 4.78 | 4.33 | -0.45 |
| Kortrijk | 7.65 | 7.00 | -0.65 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Gent and Kortrijk expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.02
- Attack rating (Gent / Kortrijk)
- 1.14 / 0.66
- Defence rating (Gent / Kortrijk)
- 0.81 / 1.33
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Gent vs Kortrijk score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Gent goals. Columns: Kortrijk goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Gent vs Kortrijk goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 45%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Gent vs Kortrijk
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Gent | 67% | 1.48 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.87 | |
| Kortrijk | 12% | 8.34 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58% | 1.72 |
| Under 2.5 | 42% | 2.39 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45% | 2.21 |
| No | 55% | 1.83 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Gent or draw) | 88% | 1.14 |
| 12 (either side) | 79% | 1.26 | |
| X2 (draw or Kortrijk) | 33% | 3.07 | |
| Handicap -1 | Gent win by 2+ | 51% | 1.94 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Gent and Kortrijk recent form
Gent
3W 1D 2L
Kortrijk
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Gent at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 2.20
- Goals against / match
- 0.40
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 5
- They have won 8 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
Kortrijk away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-4
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.20
- Goals against / match
- 2.20
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 1 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.3 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 9 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Gent at home only, Kortrijk away only.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Standard Liege vs SK Beveren — team news & stats 2026-11-06
- KVC Westerlo vs Charleroi — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- OH Leuven v KV Mechelen — match page 2026-11-07
- Antwerp v Lommel United — match page 2026-11-07
- RAAL La Louvière vs Cercle Brugge 2026-11-07
- Club Brugge KV vs Anderlecht 2026-11-08
- Union St. Gilloise vs Genk — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- St. Truiden vs Zulte Waregem 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Gent, previous: KuPS v Gent analysis
- Kortrijk, previous: Kortrijk vs KV Mechelen: odds and pick