Updated

Jupiler Pro League · Matchday 10

Lommel United vs Gent

· Soevereinstadion, Lommel· Referee K. van Damme

Full time2 – 0

TipsterGrid prediction was Gent to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 2

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Lommel UnitedDrawGent

Lommel United vs Gent: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceLommel UnitedDrawGent
Model25%27%48%
Market21%25%55%
Published22%25%53%
Edge+1%0%-2%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.67 vs 1.14.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Lommel United vs Gent odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Gent, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-27.

Opened 1.81Now 1.71 -0.10
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Lommel United4.004.53+0.53
Draw3.723.75+0.03
Gent1.811.71-0.10

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Lommel United and Gent expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.14Lommel United
1.67Gent
Total expected goals
2.82
Attack rating (Lommel United / Gent)
1.04 / 1.27
Defence rating (Lommel United / Gent)
1.04 / 0.72

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Lommel United vs Gent score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 7.1% 8.9% 8.4% 4.7% 2.8% 1 5.7% 12.6% 9.6% 5.3% 3.2% 2 3.9% 6.5% 5.5% 3.1% 1.9% 3 1.5% 2.5% 2.1% 1.2% 0.7% 4+ 0.5% 0.9% 0.8% 0.4% 0.3%

Rows: Lommel United goals. Columns: Gent goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Lommel United vs Gent goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%
Over 1.5 78%
Over 2.5 53%
Over 3.5 31%
Both teams to score
57%
No goals (0–0)
7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Lommel United vs Gent

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Lommel United22%4.61
Draw25%3.96
Gent53%1.89
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.553%1.87
Under 2.547%2.15
Both teams to scoreYes57%1.77
No43%2.30
Double chance1X (Lommel United or draw)47%2.13
12 (either side)75%1.34
X2 (draw or Gent)78%1.28
Handicap -1Gent win by 2+27%3.77
Push (exactly one goal)22%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Lommel United and Gent recent form

Lommel United 2W 2D 2L
Gent 4W 1D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Lommel United at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-2
Win rate
25%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
0.50
Clean sheets
2 of 4
  • They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 9 matches.

Gent away

Record (W-D-L)
3-1-0
Win rate
75%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
0.50
Clean sheets
2 of 4
  • They have won 8 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 9 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Lommel United at home only, Gent away only.

Expected lineups

Lommel United lineup · 4-1-4-1

  1. 23 Matthias Pieklak
  2. 4 Shawn Adewoye
  3. 14 Jesper Tolinsson
  4. 3 Timothy Eyoma
  5. 2 Jason van Duiven
  6. 6 Joey Pelupessy
  7. 10 Tom Reyners
  8. 41 Sverre Nypan
  9. 15 Lucas Schoofs
  10. 11 Stredair Appuah
  11. 9 Don-Angelo Konadu

Bench: Nikola Ivezić, Juho Talvitie, Nicolas Rommens, Emile Vandecraen, Đorđe Gordić, Isaiah Dada-Mascoll, Niek Corthouts, Tristan Gooijer, Alexander Reumers

Gent lineup · 3-4-2-1

  1. 33 Davy Roef
  2. 44 Siebe Van der Heyden
  3. 57 Matties Volckaert
  4. 3 Maksim Paskotsi
  5. 20 Tiago Araújo
  6. 17 Mathias Delorge
  7. 22 Leonardo Lopes
  8. 45 Hyllarion Goore
  9. 11 Momodou Sonko
  10. 37 Abdelkahar Kadri
  11. 21 Max Dean

Bench: László Bénes, Aimé Omgba, Kyrell Wilson, Tibe De Vlieger, Kjell Peersman, Bas Evers, Gilles De Meyer, Abdul Ayinde, Josué Vergara, Mamadou Diallo, El Hadji Seck

Lommel United vs Gent head-to-head

Last 1 meetings: Lommel United 0 · draws 0 · Gent 1.

Lommel UnitedDrawsGent
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2021-12-01Lommel United0-2GentCup

Other Matchday 10 fixtures

Before and after this match